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MLB free pick Mariners vs A’s – Sept 22

Scott Rickenbach MLB free pick on Thursday September 22nd 2022

MLB free pick Thursday Free Pick Seattle Mariners Run Line -1.5 -130 @ Oakland A’s @ 3:37 ET – Just do not see the Mariners getting swept by the lowly A’s. Yes, anything can happen but I am backing Seattle here to get a big win at Oakland to close out this series. Regardless of pitchers, payback time for the Mariners here. Action on pitchers is the way to play this one but I will mention that the expected starting pitchers here also help the cause! Martinez has been roughed up badly in consecutive starts plus got hammered by the Mariners earlier this season. As for Kirby, he is having a fantastic season and also has a very low ERA both on the road and in day games. Very comfortable laying the 1.5 runs with the road team here. Mariners had won 11 of 16 road games heading into this series. Also, 18 of last 20 M’s wins have been by 2 or more runs! Free Pick SEATTLE -1.5 -130. All the best Scott Rickenbach

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NFL free prediction Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens, Sept 18th

ASA breaks down this NFL showdown for you with insights on how and who to bet on.

#263/264 ASA PLAY ON Under 44.5 Points โ€“ Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

These 2 met last year and it was a 22-10 grinder won by the Fins.ย  We expect a similar situation on Sunday.ย  Both of these teams were slower paced the first week of the season with Miami ranking 31stย in pace and Baltimore 27thย after one game.ย  The Ravens ranked 20thย in pace last year so that should stay the same throughout this season.ย  Miami was middle of the pack a year ago but their new head coach McDaniels loves to run the ball and we anticipate them in the bottom third in pace this season.ย  In their first game, theย Dolphinsย put up just 20 points vs New England and 7 of those came on a defensive TD.ย  Defensively they looked really good holding the Pats to just 7 points on 271 total yards (5.0 YPP).ย  The Baltimore offense put up 24 points last week but gained only 274 total yards.ย  They held the Jets to 9 points and while NY had 380 total yards, almost 200 of those yards came when Baltimore was up 24-3 and the game was out of reach.ย  The Jets only averaged 4.8 YPP for the game.ย  In their meeting last year, the Fins and Ravens combined to average only 4.9 YPP and there were 16 punts in the game.ย  There were only 25 points scored by the offenses in that game with Miami returning a fumble 50 yards for a TD.ย  There were 27 possessions in the game and 20 of those last 6 plays or fewer.ย  The defenses dominated that game and we expect the same here.ย  Baltimore loves the run the ball (3rdย in carries per game last year) and we look for theย Dolphinsย to run a lot this year with a new scheme from McDaniels whose known as one of the top run game coordinators on the NFL.ย  Running eats clock and shortens the game.ย  These 2 have faced off 6 times since 2014 and only one of those games topped 44 points.ย  The projected score on this game is Baltimore 24, Miami 21 and we donโ€™t expect either team to reach their number.ย  Under is the play.

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NFL Player Prop bets from ASA on Sept 18th

Las Vegas Raiders – Darren Waller Over 51.5 Rec Yards (-110)

The Cardinals were torched in week 1 by Patrick Mahomes for 360 yards, and Las Vegas now gets a crack at that same Arizona defense. Last week, Waller had 4 recs for 79 yards. The Raiders stud TE will be able to find plenty of holes in the Cardinals secondary in week 2. Derek Carr force fed Davante Adams last week and should be spreading the ball around a bit more moving forward. In the highest o/u of the weekend (51.5), Waller will have ample opportunity to eclipse his rec yards total. 

Cleveland Browns – Nick Chubb Over 16.5 Rush Att (-110)

Chubb had 22 rushing attempts last week in a close win against the Panthers. The Browns are 6.5 point favorites as the Jets come to town in what should be a relatively easy win for Cleveland. A run heavy game script would seem to be in play for this one, with plenty of โ€œchew clockโ€ rushing attempts for the Browns RBs. New York held the Baltimore rushing attack in check last week, so look for a less efficient week from Chubb with still lots of carries. 

New England Patriots – Rhamondre Stevenson Over 11.5 Rec Yards (-110)

Ty Montgomery was placed on IR this week, leaving the passing down work to be spread amongst the Patriots remaining RBs. Stevenson gained praise from the coaching staff earlier this offseason about his improved hands, but he only handled two targets in week 1. New Englandโ€™s offense has to improve, and getting the ball out quickly has always been a staple for the Pats. Stevenson should see at least 3-5 targets and look to capitalize on Mac Jonesโ€™ checkdowns.ย 

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New Mexico vs. UTEP Saturday Sept 17

#130 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico +2.5 over UTEP, Saturday at 8 PM ET

UTEP steps into this one with a 1-2 record and their lone win came last week 20-13 vs New Mexico State.ย  The Miners were outgained in that game and beaten at the line of scrummage allowing 4.7 YPC to the Aggies while gaining just 3.5 YPC.ย  UTEP was also +1 turnovers in the win yet NM State had the ball deep in Miner territory late with a chance to tie but fumbled on the 13 yard line.ย  Thatโ€™s an NMSU team that has a grand total of 5 wins vs FBS teams since the start of the 2018 season.ย  Not an impressive effort by UTEP.ย  Now they are favored on the road for just the 4thย time since the start of the 2016 season.ย  Definitely a role they are not used to.ย  The Miners in fact, are just 6-11 ATS the last 17 times theyโ€™ve been a road chalk.ย  New Mexico is 1-1 on the season and they have an extra day to prepare for this one after losing 31-14 to Boise State last Friday night.ย  While the offense struggled vs a very good Boise defense, we were impressed with the Lobo stop unit as they held the Broncos to 318 total yards.ย  In this match up last year NM held a 10 point lead at half @ UTEP and the Miners battled back for a 7 point win scoring their final TD with under 3:00 minutes remaining.ย  We like New Mexico to win the line of scrimmage here which will give the advantage to the underdog.ย  Speaking of underdog, the puppy has covered 5 of the 6 meetings in this series.ย  UTEP has been overvalued by the oddsmakers with an 0-3 ATS record thus far losing those games by a combined 30 points to the number.ย  They continued to be overvalued here as a road favorite.ย  We like New Mexico to win this game at home.

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NFL Player Props Chargers vs. Chiefs – Sept 15th

ASA NFL PLAYER PROPS THURSDAY NIGHT โ€“ LA Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Below you will find our NFL predictions for Thursday Sept 14th 2022

OVER 15.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110) โ€“ Chiefs Edwards-Helaire โ€“ There was talk in Chiefs camp this summer about throwing more to Edwards Helaire out of the backfield as a checkdown option for Mahomes. In the opener Helaire was targeted 3 times with 3 receptions for 32 yards. Last year against the Chargers in two games he totaled 4 receptions for 27 yards but his longest was 12 yards. On the season he had 129 total yards in 10 games or 12.9 receiving yards per game. You can see our logic for yourself, it may take just 1 reception for him to get Over this number. With the added pressure of the Chargers defensive line Mahomes may be forced to throw quicker underneath making this a solid NFL player props wager.

UNDER 284.5 PASSING YARDS – LA Chargers Herbert โ€“ These two teams attempted 39.9 passes per game last season which was 2ndย to Tampa Bay. KC averaged 288.5 passing yards per game, the Chargers were right behind them at 282.4PYPG. In the two meetings between these two teams last year, Herbert had 74 total attempts for 517 total yards or 258.5 passing yards per game. The Chargers will look to establish the running game here as they did in week 1 against the Raiders with 31 rush attempts which was 10thย most in the openers. The Chargers and Herbert are also without their top WR in Keenan Allen in this one which will also limit the passing attack. We like this NFL player props UNDER!

RUSHING ATTEMPTS OVER 12.5 (-108) โ€“ Chargers Austin Ekeler โ€“ In an effort to keep the Chiefs potent offense off the field the Chargers game plan early on will be a heavy dose of the running game and Austin Ekeler. LAC rushed 31 times last week against the Raiders which was 10thย most in the league, Ekeler had 14 of those. Last season Ekeler averaged 12.8 attempts per game in the regular season. In the two games with KC last year, he had 12 carries when he was splitting time with Justin Jackson, and 11 in the other meeting. The key to this NFL prediction winning is a close game throughout so the Chargers donโ€™t abandon the running game.