Tag: American Sports Analysts

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NBA free bet | Suns vs Warriors Prediction | December 28th 2024

ASA’s NBA free bet on UNDER 219.5 Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors, 8:30PM ET

Both teams are coming off a game last night and playing their 4th game in 6 days so fatigue is going to be a factor. Golden State has turned into a solid Under team with 14 of their last eighteen games staying below the number.

Looking at their most recent 15 games we find they are the 27th lowest scoring team in the NBA over that stretch averaging just 105.1ppg.

Phoenix has now stayed Under in 5 of their last six games and scored 90 or less in two of those games.

Over each teams last five games the Suns have played at the 3rd slowest tempo in the league, the Warriors 14th slowest.

These same two teams met on November 30th and combined to score 218 total points. With how the betting markets are reacting to this O/U it’s obvious that sharp money is on the Under. We agree.

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NFL free bet Sunday | Cardinals vs Panthers Prediction | 12-22-24

NFL FREE BET – #109 ASA FREE PLAY ON Arizona Cardinals -4 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 PM ET

Carolina had played a few decent games in a row and had a chance to prove themselves last week as a small favorite vs a bad Dallas team playing their back up QB. 

That didn’t go as planned as the Cowboys dominated on the road with Dallas winning 30-14 and outgaining Carolina by +1.2 YPP.  It was a clean sweep for Dallas in the key stats as they outgained the Panthers YPP, YPC, and yards per pass attempt. 

Carolina’s 3 wins this year have come vs the Raiders, Giants, and Saints who have a combined record of 9-33 and 2 of those wins came by 3 points or less.  They’ve been non-competitive in a number of their losses this season as their 11 setbacks have come by an average of 16 points. 

Arizona is in a must win spot here if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive.  The Cards have played the most difficult strength of schedule in the NFL this year yet they still have a YPP margin of +0.3 (9th best in the NFL) while Carolina is -0.8 YPP on the season. 

The Cardinals love to run the ball and should have a huge advantage doing so as they average 141 YPG (7th in the NFL) and they are facing the worst rush defense in the league with the Panthers allowing 173 YPG rushing on 5.0 YPC. 

Carolina is getting outscored by an average of 10 PPG at home this season and we like Arizona to win this one by at least a TD.   

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NBA player prop bets | December 17th 2024 | Emirates Cup Final

ASA NBA PLAYER PROP UNDER 11.5 REBOUND GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO – MILWAUKEE BUCKS

Giannis just went over his rebounding prop against the Hawks in Emirates Cup play the other nightwith 14 but Atlanta allows the most rebounds to Power Forwards in the NBA 15.4 per game. Giannis has only been over this total 2 times in his last 10 games and OKC allows the 4th fewest rebounds per game to PF this season at 8.2. NBA player prop bet – UNDER 11.5 REBOUNDS Giannis Antetokounmpo.

ASA NBA PLAYER PROP OVER 6.5 POINTS AJ GREEN – MILWAUKEE BUCKS

Green is averaging 8.3PPG in his last ten games and is playing an average of 24 ½ minutes per game over that same 10 game period. He has scored 6 or more points in 9 straight games. He is shooting 45.2% from Deep and with Giannis, Lillard and Middleton getting all of the Thunders defensive attention he should get 6+ field goal attempts up in this one. You may want to consider Over 1.5 made 3-pointers but will have to lay high juice at -155.

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NFL FREE BET | Steelers vs Eagles Prediction | Dec 15 2024

#469/470 ASA PLAY ON Under 43 Points – Pittsburgh Steelers vs Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

Two high level defenses rule the day here.  The Eagles lead the NFL allowing only 4.7 YPP and since their bye in week 5, they have allowed only 1.29 points per drive which is tops in the NFL during that time.  They also limit explosive plays giving up an average of just 2 plays per game of more than 20 yards since their bye which is also best in the NFL. 

They haven’t allowed a single team to top 23 points since week 5 and are allowing just 15 PPG over their last 9.  During that span they’ve held some high level offensive teams in check giving up 19 points vs Baltimore, 17 vs Cincinnati, and 18 vs Washington. 

We think the Steelers struggle on offense here with their top playmaker at WR Pickens who is out with a hamstring issue.  Last week without Pickens, Pittsburgh was only able to put up 267 total yards vs Cleveland and QB Wilson only had 158 yards passing. 

The Philly offense has been all that spectacular as of late failing to top 300 total yards in each of their last 2 games vs Baltimore and Carolina.  Their overall offensive numbers are decent (11th in YPP) but let’s keep in mind they have not faced a top 10 defense the entire season.  Not one.  In fact, not only have they not taken on a high level defense this year, they’ve already faced 7 of the 8 worst defenses (total defense) this season. 

The Steelers stop unit is top 10 in total defense, YPP allowed, and rush defense.  These 2 offense rank #1 and #2 in rush attempts per game which eats clock.  They are both slow tempo teams ranking 20th & 22nd in plays per second.  Lastly, both defense are fantastic on 3rd down (#2 and #3 in opponents 3rd down conversion rate) which limits scoring drives.  We like this one to stay Under the total.  

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NFL Free Pick | Jets vs Dolphins Prediction | Dec 8 2024

POINT TRAIN NFL FREE BET –OVER 44.5 @Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets – 1PM ET

  • There is a ton of UNDER tickets and money flowing in on this O-U number, yet the Books won’t budge off 44.5. That tells us all we need to know.
  • Miami’s offense was humming scoring with 23, 34 and 34-points in three straight games until they ran into the Packers on Thanksgiving Day in frigid temps/wind and only managed 17-points.
  • The Dolphins are averaging 5.8 yards per play in their last three games and continue to get better as Tua gets more comfortable with the offense after missing several games this season in concussion protocol.
  • Miami has a big advantage this week with their wideouts going up against a bunch of backup DB’s for the Jets. New York is prone to allowing big plays to opponents passing attacks at 10.1 yards/attempt.
  • The Jets defense has allowed 31,28 and 26 points in their last three games and 5.5 yards per play which is up from the 4.9 they allow for the season.
  • Of course, we will need the Jets to score here too, and they should after putting up 27 and 21 points the past two weeks.
  • NY is loaded offensively but haven’t put together that one break out game. With nothing left to play for they will throw caution to the wind and open up the playbook to try and play spoiler in this AFC East clash.

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