ASA’s AFC WEST WIN TOTAL PROJECTION
ASA AFC West Prediction – Denver Broncos – UNDER 5.5 Wins (-115)
How are the Broncos going to score enough points to keep up in games? They might have the worst group of skill position players in the NFL and it starts at QB. Jarred Stidham, Zach Wilson, and rookie Bo Nix are battling it out to see who gets the nod as the starting signal caller. Stidham and Wilson both have a career passing completion percentage below 60% and they’ve combined to throw more interceptions than TD’s. Rookie Bo Nix will be the Week #1 starter and we are not overly confident in his ability to lead this Broncos team to 6+ wins.
Denver lost top WR Jerry Jeudy to Cleveland and starting RB Williams dropped off big time last season (just 3.5 YPC) after a serious knee injury in 2022. Head coach Sean Payton said he wants to run the ball more to protect his inexperienced, and honestly just not very good, QB’s.
The problem is, they weren’t great at running the ball last year (21st in YPC) and didn’t really do much in the off season to improve on that. The Denver offense was just 1 of 7 in the NFL that didn’t have a player with 1,000 yards rushing or receiving and they’ll be worse on that side of the ball this year.
The defense will most likely be improved but that won’t take much as they finished 27th in PPG allowed and 29th in YPG allowed.
The Broncos face the 8th most difficult schedule this season (per PFF) and have only 8 home games. They’ve always had a solid home field advantage, but on the road they have not had a winning record since 2015 (16-41 road record the last 7 years) and we project them to be underdogs in all of their road tilts this season.
Believe it or not, the Broncos have averaged only 6 wins per season over the last 7 years and we project this to be one of their worst teams during that stretch. 5 or fewer wins for Denver this year is likely.
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