Category: Freepicks

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Free College Bets | Wisconsin vs Indiana | Nov 15

#344 ASA FREE COLLEGE BET – ON Indiana -29 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 12 PM ET

It’s not often we lay a huge number but this one is warranted.  Indiana has played only 3 Big 10 home games and they’ve won those by 53 points (vs Illinois), by 50 points (vs UCLA), and by 25 points (vs MSU). 

IU head coach Cignetti is not afraid to bury teams and he’s done just that at home.  The Hoosiers are undefeated at home since Cignetti took over at the beginning of last season and their average margin of victory in those games is +36 points. 

They are in the top 10 nationally in both total offense and total defense.  This offense has put up at least 30 points in 17 of their 23 games under Cignetti. 

The problem for Wisconsin is they can’t score.  They have only 4 total TD’s in their 6 Big 10 games and they haven’t topped 300 total yards in a conference game this season.  Last week they beat Washington at home 13-10 with 205 total yards and 48 yards passing, of which 24 came from their punter on a fake punt. 

It looks like true freshman Carter Smith will get his first ever collegiate start here.  That’s a rough spot for an inexperienced QB.  If Wisconsin can’t run the ball, they are in huge trouble. 

The IU defense allows just 83 YPG on the ground so Smith will have to somehow create some plays through the air.  The Badger defense has been very solid over the last few games but they are running into a juggernaut here as Indiana averages 548 YPG on 7.7 YPP at home this season. 

This one looks like another Hoosier home blow out. 

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College Basketball Free Bet | Tuesday, Nov 11th 2025

#632 ASA College Basketball Free PLAY ON North Dakota State -4 over Cal State Northridge (CSUN), Tuesday at 8 PM ET

This line opened NDSU +1 and now they are -4.  It was going to be a rated play at +1 but at -4 it’s now just an opinion.

CSUN is in a bad situational spot here playing their 3rd road game in 6 days.  They played @ Northern Iowa last Thursday (lost by 29 points), then played @ North Dakota on Sunday (won by 8) and now @ North Dakota State tonight.  CSUN is 2-1 on the season and probably ready to get back home to California after being gone for a full week (left last Wednesday).  The Matadors are coming off a 93-85 win @ North Dakota Sunday which wasn’t overly impressive.  UND is ranked as the worst team in the Summit League, basically tied with UMKC (per KenPom) and the 324th best team in the country.  The Fighting Hawks were just 12-21 last season and only won 5 Summit League games.  Now CSUN, just 48 hours later, faces one of the top teams in the Summit (NDSU rated 3rd best team in the league) and the Bison will be hungry for a win after starting the season 0-2 losing @ Oregon State by 2 and @ UC Davis by 12.  This will be their first home game of the season and unlike CSUN, they’ve had a full week off to get ready for this one.  After 2 games, the Bison are shooting just 15% from beyond the arc and we’d expect them to shoot much better at home tonight.  This team led the NATION in 3 point shooting last year hitting 40% of their triples so positive regression is likely tonight.  NDSU should get plenty of extra possessions on Tuesday as CSUN has been a turnover machine this year coughing it up on over 24% of their possessions while the Bison create turnovers on 22% of their defensive possessions.  NDSU, on the other hand, has done a nice job of taking care of the ball with just a 14% turnover rate.  They should also control the boards as they rank in the top 70 in both offensive and defensive rebounding while CSUN is outside the top 300 in both of those this season.  We like the hungry Bison to get this win at home.

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NFL Free Bet | Cardinals vs Seahawks | Nov 9 2025

#267 ASA FREE PLAY ON Arizona Cardinals +7 over Seattle Seahawks, Sunday at 4 PM ET

The Cards are on a nice little roll since Jacoby Brissett took over at QB.  They have covered 3 straight and took 2 of the NFL’s best teams (Indy and Green Bay) to the wire in close losses.  They’re catching Seattle a bit overvalued right now and at the top of their market in our opinion.  We’ve been pro Seahawks all season and won with them on a few occasions but this is a fade spot.  They’ve won and covered 6 of their last 7 games and this is just the 2nd time this season they’ve been favored by more than 3.5 points.  To put this number in perspective, the Seahawks were favored by the same number (-7 or -7.5) at home vs New Orleans a few weeks ago.  The Cards sit 12 spots ahead of the Saints via the DVOA metric yet we’re getting the same number.  Seattle is 2-2 at home this season (4-0 on the road) and their numbers here at Lumen Field as they average 53 fewer YPG and almost a full YPP less (0.8).  Three of their four home games have been decided by 1 score.  Since Brissett took over, the Arizona offense is averaging 357 YPG, 26 PPG, and they lead the league in 3rd down conversion rate during that 3 game stretch.  Prior to that with Kyler Murray at QB, the Cardinals were averaging 288 YPG and 20.6 PPG.  We think Arizona does enough to hang around here and cover this inflated number.  Take the points. 

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NHL free bet | Sabres vs Hurricanes | Nov 8 2025

ASA NHL free bet: Under 6.5 Goals Buffalo Sabres at Carolina Hurricanes, 7pm ET

Fade the over in this lopsided matchup and back the Under 6.5 (-120 or better) with high confidence and a projected +7% edge. Carolina enters with the NHL’s stingiest defense (xGA/60 at 2.2, No. 1) and a top-5 penalty kill (85%) that has suffocated opponents all season, allowing just 2.69 goals per game. Buffalo’s road offense ranks bottom-10 (2.6 GF/G away) with poor shot quality and a regressing 9.0% shooting percentage, generating minimal high-danger looks against elite structures like Carolina’s.Goaltending seals it: Frederik Andersen/Pyotr Kochetkov the Hurricanes’ tandem sit top-10 in SV% (.915+), while Alex Lyon/Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen faces a barrage but benefits from Carolina’s low-event style. Ongoing injuries to key play-drivers (Slavin, Gostisbehere for CAR; Benson for BUF) further depress pace and transition chances.Our Poisson model spits out 5.5 expected goals (65% probability Under 6.5), crushing the implied ~58% after juice. Combined xG/60 clocks in at just 5.2—classic Carolina home trap game. Pound the Under; this one finishes 3-1 or 4-2 at the absolute ceiling.

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College Football Free Bet | E Michigan vs Bowling Green | Nov 8

#154 ASA College Football Free Bet: ON Eastern Michigan -2 over Bowling Green, Saturday at 1 PM ET

BG is definitely heading the wrong direction losing 5 of their last 6 games with their only win coming vs Toledo in a game the Falcons were outgained 429 to 226. 

They have massive problems at QB with starter Drew Pyne banged up and if he can’t go it’s most likely 4th stringer Hunter Najm.  There is some turmoil in this program as well as 3 players were arrested last weekend and they fired their offensive coordinator this week. 

BG’s last 3 games have all been non-covers and not close with an average of loss of 21+ points vs the number.  EMU is in a good spot at home and coming off a bye after covering 5 of their last 7 games.  They went into the bye after playing one of the top teams in the MAC (Ohio) to the wire at home losing 28-21 on a Bobcat TD with under 1:00 minute remaining in the game. 

If we focus on MAC stats only (comparable teams) EMU has been the better team with better YPG, YPP, and point differentials.  We like Eastern Michigan vs a team that seems to be in a bit of disarray.  College Football free bet today is on EMU.

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