Category: Freepicks

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Free Bet | Oklahoma State vs Texas Prediction | Dec 2

#310 ASA FREE PLAY ON Texas TEAM TOTAL Over 34.5 Points (vs Oklahoma State), Saturday at 12 PM ET

There are some 35’s and 35.5’s posted as well but 34.5 is still available as some sportsbooks.  We like the Longhorns to score at least 35 points in this game so we’re taking Texas OVER their TEAM TOTAL which is currently set at 34.5.  One key to this game is Texas absolutely needs style points so we expect them to keep scoring even if they do get a big lead (favored by 15 points).  They will most likely be one of many 1 loss teams fighting for a spot in the CFP Final 4.  The Horns already showed last week they’re fine with running up the score at this point beating Texas Tech 57-7 while scoring their final TD with just over 30 seconds remaining in the game.  They should be very successful on offense here facing an Okie State defense that ranks outside the top 100 nationally in YPG allowed, YPP allowed, rushing yards allowed, and passing yards allowed.  The OSU defense will have to pick their poison here as Texas is very balanced averaging 189 YPG rushing and 272 YPG passing.  The Longhorn offense has scored at least 30 points in 10 of their 12 games this year and in many of those they had big leads and no incentive to keep scoring which they do here.  They’ve also scored at least 35 points in 4 of their last 5 meetings vs Oklahoma State.  Perfect conditions with this game being played inside at the Cowboys home field.  Over 34.5 Points for Texas in this game is our play. 

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NBA Prop Bets – Monday, Nov 27th

ASA’s 2 NBA Players Prop bets in the NBA for Monday, November 27th

WASHINGTON WIZARDS TYUS JONES – OVER 11.5 POINTS

Jones is coming off a 4-point outing against the Hawks but should get right in this match up versus the Pistons. Jones is averaging 10.8PPG over his last ten games but in three of those games he managed just 6-total points. In the other seven games over that ten game stretch he has averaged 14.5PPG. Tonight, the Wiz face a Detroit team that allows the most points to Point Guards this season at 28.5PPG. Detroit is 24th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.178 points per possession on the season and allow opponents to shoot 50.3% on the season which is 30th or last in the league. Tyus Jones is coming off a poor shooting night against the Hawks, but he had shot 64.3%, 46.2%, 69.2%, 57.1% and 85.7% in his previous five games. Lastly, the Total on this game is 236 total points which means a high scoring game for both teams with more than average scoring opportunities for both teams.

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS MALCOLM BROGDON – OVER 19.5 POINTS

What we know about Malcolm Brogdon going back to his Virginia days is that he likes to get his. Brogdon is working hard this season to put up numbers to showcase his skills before the trade deadline. He is second on the teams in field goal attempts at 15.8 and averages 17.7PPG on the season. In the last three games he has scored 18, 20 and 19 points. He has scored 18+ in 7 of his last ten games and will have a great opportunity to put up a big scoring night against the Pacers. Indiana averages the most possessions per game at 104.1 and attempt 95.1 field goals per game which is also first. That means this is going to be a faster paced game with plenty of scoring opportunities for the Blazers and more specifically Malcolm Brogdon. Brogdon is shooting 36.5% from beyond the Arc this season and the Pacers defense allows opponents to shoot 39.1% from the 3-point line which is 3rd worst in the league. Brogdon should put up a big scoring night against a Pacer defense that is 29th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and allow the 4th most points to Point Guards in the league.

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Free NFL bet | Jaguars vs Texans prediction | Nov 26th 2023

ASA play on: UNDER 48 Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans – 12:00 PM CT

This is a big game for the potential winner in the AFC South with the Jags holding a 1-game lead in the standings, but the Texans beat the Jags earlier in the season. The first meeting had a total of 43.5 points and finished with 54 points being scored in a 37-17 Texans win. There were several big plays in the game with an 85-kick return for a TD along with a 68-yards touchdown pass. There was also a blocked FG that turned into great field position and a quick score for Houston. Eliminate a few of those outlier plays and that came stays Under the total of 43.5 points. With the added value in this O/U number we have to bet Under. Going back to September 17th we find that games involving Jacksonville have totaled 48 or less points 6 out of nine games. Houston and their opponents have totaled less than 48 points in 6 of their ten games and again, one of those Overs came when they played this Jags team and they had several unusual scoring plays. Three of the last four meetings between these two AFC South teams has resulted in 46 or less points.

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Free bet | Washington State +16 vs Washington | Nov 25

#203 ASA PLAY ON Washington State +16 over Washington, Saturday at 4 PM ET

As we’ve stated the last few weeks, this Washington team is primed to get upset.  We are on Oregon State last week and while the Huskies won by 2 points, OSU won the stat sheet with more first downs, more yardage, but had 3 key turnovers, 2 of which led directly to 9 of Washington’s 22 points.  Despite their undefeated record, the Huskies have been outgained in 4 of their last 6 games and 7 of their 8 Pac 12 wins have come by 10 points or less.  The defense has also fallen off drastically allowing 36.5 PPG in Pac 12 play and the only team that is worse is USC.  Wazzu is off a confidence building 56-14 win over Colorado.  The Cougars needed that win to keep their bowl hopes alive and now they need a win here so plenty of motivation beyond the rivalry aspect.  WSU has lost 6 straight prior to beating Colorado but they were competitive all but one of those games including hanging with Oregon on the road before losing by 14.  This line sits at -16 in favor of Washington and of the Cougars 6 losses only one has come by that more than that margin.  The State offense matches up very well vs this porous Husky defense.  The Cougars are one of the top passing offenses in the nation (4th in the country) with a dynamic dual threat QB Ward.  They are facing a Washington defense that allows 260 YPG passing (119th) and 24 completions per game (129th).  The Huskies just need to get out of this one with a win as they are already set to face Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship next week.  They don’t need any injuries and have no incentive to run this one up late in the 2nd half even if they get a chance which we don’t think will happen.  With Washington’s defense struggling and State able to score points (32 PPG) the Huskies would have to have a massive offensive day to have a chance to cover this big number.  We like Wazzu to keep up here and make this one interesting.  Take the points.

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Free Bet | Boston College vs Miami Fl prediction | Nov 24th

#116 ASA FREE PLAY ON Boston College +10 over Miami FL, Friday at 12 PM ET

We expect Miami to be flat for this one.  They just put all of their physical and emotional effort into the last 2 weeks vs the top 2 teams in the ACC, FSU & Louisville.  The Canes lost both by a TD.  It’s going to be tough for this team, that has already qualified for a bowl game, to get up and go play in cold weather Boston (windy and wind chill in the 30’s at game time) over the Thanksgiving break.  U of M hasn’t been good on the road with a 1-3 SU record (only win @ Temple) and they’ve been a poor favorite this year going 2-5 ATS in that role.  Going back further they’ve been favored 22 times since the start of the 2021 season and covered only 6 of those games.  QB VanDyke played well in last week’s game but he is not 100% with a knee injury but was forced back into action when Emory Williams, who started vs FSU a week earlier, was injured.  BC had won 5 straight but did not play well the last 2 weeks losing to Va Tech and @ Pitt.  Their game vs Pitt was last Thursday so they’ve had extra time to get ready after a loss while Miami will be traveling on a short week.  Miami 2-5 in league play with wins by 3 & 8 points.  Miami just 10-13 SU record in ACC play since start of 2021 and only 3 wins by more than this spread (9 points).  We anticipate BC brings a great effort in their home finale coming of 2 straight losses.  This should be close so let’s back the Eagles as a free bet on Friday.

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