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NCAA Tournament Prediction | National Champions | 2025

Auburn Bruce Pearl

March Madness Prediction | National Champion Bet | Picking the 2025 NCAA Champ using KenPom Numbers

March Madness 2025 is kicking off, and everyone’s hyped about brackets and who’s gonna take it home. The NCAA Tournament is a total rollercoaster, but KenPom ratings give us some dope hints. We’re digging into offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, Net Rating, and strength of schedule to figure out who’s got the juice to be the national champ. Here’s the rundown as of March 19, 2025, based on those clutch KenPom stats.

What’s KenPom All About?

KenPom, whipped up by stat wizard Ken Pomeroy, is the go-to for college hoops junkies. It breaks teams down like this:

  • Offensive Efficiency (AdjO): Points they drop per 100 trips, adjusted for who they’re facing.
  • Defensive Efficiency (AdjD): Points they let the other guys score per 100 possessions, adjusted too.
  • Net Rating (AdjEM): The gap between offense and defense—how much they’d beat an average team by.
  • Strength of Schedule (SOS): How tough their games have been all season.

Champs usually ball out on offense and defense and play a gritty schedule to prep for the chaos. Since 2002, most winners have been top 20 in Net Rating and top 25 on both ends, with a few outliers like 2014 UConn crashing the party.

The Big Dogs: Who’s Looking Good?

Let’s peek at the top teams in KenPom right now. These squads are probably high seeds and ready to make waves.

  1. Auburn Tigers
    • AdjO: Top 10 (~118-122)
    • AdjD: Top 5 (~87-92)
    • Net Rating: Top 5 (~30-34)
    • SOS: Top 15

Auburn’s defense is straight-up filthy—maybe No. 1—and their offense is fire too. They’re channeling 2008 Kansas or 2012 Kentucky, teams that topped KenPom and won it all. The SEC’s been a battle, and Johni Broome’s a monster inside. They could steamroll the South Region if they keep shutting teams down.

  1. Duke Blue Devils
    • AdjO: Top 5 (~120-125)
    • AdjD: Top 5 (~85-90)
    • Net Rating: No. 1 (~38-40)
    • SOS: Top 10

Duke’s chilling at No. 1 in KenPom with a wild Net Rating that could break records if they win. They’re nasty on both ends—think 2019 Virginia or 2023 UConn. The ACC’s been brutal, and with Cooper Flagg (if his ankle’s good), they’re draining 37-38% from three, a big deal since most champs shoot well from deep.

  1. Houston Cougars
    • AdjO: Top 15 (~115-120)
    • AdjD: No. 1 (~82-87)
    • Net Rating: Top 5 (~32-35)
    • SOS: Top 20

Houston’s defense is unreal, best in the game, kinda like 2018 Villanova. Their offense isn’t loud but gets it done, like 2023 UConn. The Big 12’s been a slugfest, and they’re primed for the Midwest Region. They lock up shooters, which could mess with teams that rely on threes.

  1. Florida Gators
    • AdjO: Top 5 (~120-124)
    • AdjD: Top 20 (~90-95)
    • Net Rating: Top 10 (~28-32)
    • SOS: Top 25

Florida’s offense is lit, one of the best, kinda like 2016 Villanova. Their defense isn’t top-tier, but it’s solid. The SEC’s toughened them up, and the West Region might vibe with their style if they dodge an early trap from a sneaky No. 12 like Colorado State.

  1. Gonzaga Bulldogs
    • AdjO: Top 10 (~118-122)
    • AdjD: Top 15 (~88-93)
    • Net Rating: Top 10 (~28-32)
    • SOS: Top 30

Gonzaga’s always a threat, and this year’s numbers feel like their 2021 Final Four run. The WCC’s not insane, but they’ve got big wins to juice their SOS. They’re smooth inside and could surprise as a No. 5 seed or so, especially if their region’s wide open.

What History Says

Since 2002, 19 of 22 champs were top 20 in offensive efficiency, and all but three were top 40 on defense. The average Net Rating for winners is around 27-28, with weird exceptions like 2014 UConn. They usually play a top-50 schedule too. So, Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida, and Gonzaga are the hot picks. Teams like Alabama (all offense, weak D) or Tennessee (good but not elite) don’t totally match up.

National Champion: Auburn Tigers

After chewing on the numbers, I’m riding with Auburn to snag the 2025 title. Their top-5 Net Rating (~30-34), killer defense, and legit offense make them a champ in the making—like 2008 Kansas with that No. 1 KenPom vibe. The SEC’s been a grind, and that’s got them ready to roll. They’ll take on the South Region, and with Johni Broome leading the charge, they’ve got the sauce to go all the way.

In the Final Four, they might bump into Duke’s balance or Houston’s lockdown D, but Auburn’s ability to stifle teams and score just enough gives them the edge. Florida and Gonzaga can light it up, but Auburn’s tougher and more complete. As long as they don’t stumble early, they’re cutting down the nets on April 7 in Houston.

Wrapping It Up

March Madness is a wild ride, but KenPom helps us spot the real deal. Auburn’s got the stats and grit to take it home this year. Lock them in your bracket—but don’t be shocked if a Cinderella shakes things up, ‘cause it’s March, y’all!

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March Madness Moneyline picks | Bracket predictions | 2025

March Madnesss

We are breaking down the brackets for the NCAA tournament and making moneyline predictions. We looked back at last year and ran the numbers on the 10-14 Seeds and what the results would have been if you blanket bet all of those higher seeds on the moneyline. Here are the results for the 2024 1st round of the Tournament.

To calculate and summarize the outcome of betting on all the 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14 seeds on the moneyline in the first round of the 2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, excluding the First Four play-in games, we’ll focus solely on the main bracket for that year. Here’s the approach:

  • The 2024 NCAA Tournament had 64 teams in the main bracket after the First Four. There are typically four teams per seed (10, 11, 12, 13, 14) across the four regions, with the 11-seed potentially varying due to First Four outcomes. For this calculation, we exclude the First Four and use only the four 11-seeds in the main bracket.
  • Moneyline bets are wagers on a team to win outright, with positive odds (e.g., +300) indicating profit on a $100 bet.
  • We’ll use actual first-round results from 2024 and estimate typical moneyline odds based on historical trends, as exact odds for every game aren’t provided here.

Assumptions

  1. Number of Teams in 2024 Main Bracket:
    • 10-seed: 4 teams.
    • 11-seed: 4 teams (excluding First Four winners like Colorado and Boise State advancing as 10-seeds).
    • 12-seed: 4 teams.
    • 13-seed: 4 teams.
    • 14-seed: 4 teams.
    • Total teams = 4 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 4 = 20 teams.
  2. Bet Amount: $100 on each team’s moneyline in their first-round game.
  3. Typical Moneyline Odds: Based on historical trends for first-round matchups:
    • 10-seed vs. 7-seed: ~+135.
    • 11-seed vs. 6-seed: ~+175.
    • 12-seed vs. 5-seed: ~+250.
    • 13-seed vs. 4-seed: ~+350.
    • 14-seed vs. 3-seed: ~+600.
  4. 2024 First-Round Results: From the 2024 tournament (main bracket only):
    • 10-seeds: Nevada (lost to Dayton), Drake (lost to Washington State), Colorado (beat Florida), Colorado State (lost to Texas). Wins: 1.
    • 11-seeds: NC State (beat Texas Tech), Oregon (beat South Carolina), New Mexico (lost to Clemson), Duquesne (beat BYU). Wins: 3.
    • 12-seeds: James Madison (beat Wisconsin), Grand Canyon (beat Saint Mary’s), McNeese (lost to Gonzaga), UAB (lost to San Diego State). Wins: 2.
    • 13-seeds: Yale (beat Auburn), Charleston (lost to Alabama), Samford (lost to Kansas), Vermont (lost to Duke). Wins: 1.
    • 14-seeds: Oakland (beat Kentucky), Colgate (lost to Baylor), Morehead State (lost to Illinois), Akron (lost to Creighton). Wins: 1.
  5. Focus: First-round games only.

Calculation

  • Total Bets: 20 teams × $100 = $2,000 wagered.
  • Wins and Payouts:
    • 10-seed: 1 win (Colorado). At +135, payout = $100 × 1.35 = $135 profit. Total return = $135 + $100 = $235.
    • 11-seed: 3 wins (NC State, Oregon, Duquesne). At +175, payout = $175 profit per win. Total profit = 3 × $175 = $525. Total return = $525 + $300 = $825.
    • 12-seed: 2 wins (James Madison, Grand Canyon). At +250, payout = $250 profit per win. Total profit = 2 × $250 = $500. Total return = $500 + $200 = $700.
    • 13-seed: 1 win (Yale). At +350, payout = $350 profit. Total return = $350 + $100 = $450.
    • 14-seed: 1 win (Oakland). At +600, payout = $600 profit. Total return = $600 + $100 = $700.
  • Total Return: $235 + $825 + $700 + $450 + $700 = $2,910.
  • Net Profit: $2,910 – $2,000 = $910.

Summary

If you bet $100 on the moneyline for every 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14 seed in the first round of the 2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, excluding the First Four play-in games, you would have wagered $2,000 total. Based on the actual results and estimated odds, you’d have 8 wins (1 + 3 + 2 + 1 + 1), yielding a total return of $2,910. This results in a net profit of $910, or a 45.5% return on investment. The 2024 tournament showcased notable upsets, like Oakland over Kentucky and Yale over Auburn, driving higher payouts for lower seeds, while the 11-seeds’ strong performance (3-1) boosted the overall return. Actual profits could vary slightly with specific odds, but this reflects a solid year for betting underdogs in this range.

Can you find the higher seeds that are going to win outright this year?

Good luck in the NCAA Tournament this year!

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Daytona 500 Betting Preview | Feb 10th 2025

Daytona 500


Daytona 500 Preview for 2025

The 67th running of the iconic Daytona 500 is set to kick off the NASCAR Cup Series season on Sunday, February 16, 2025, at the Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach, Florida. Known as “The Great American Race,” this event promises high speeds, thrilling pack racing, and the unpredictable nature that makes it a favorite among fans and bettors alike.

Race Overview:

  • Date: February 16, 2025
  • Time: 2:30 PM ET
  • TV: FOX
  • Track: Daytona International Speedway, a 2.5-mile tri-oval
  • Laps: 200 (500 miles)

Betting Insights:

The Daytona 500 often defies expectations, with longshots frequently crossing the finish line first. Here’s a look at the current betting odds for the drivers, based on recent performances, history at Daytona, and the overall market sentiment:

Top Favorites:

  • Kyle Busch (+1100): Despite never clinching the Daytona 500, Busch has shown consistent performance at Daytona and is a perennial threat due to his experience and skill.
  • Brad Keselowski (+1100): With a knack for superspeedway racing, Keselowski’s odds reflect his potential to break through with another Daytona victory.
  • Denny Hamlin (+1200): Hamlin is one of the few active drivers with multiple Daytona 500 wins, making him a strong contender again this year.
  • Joey Logano (+1200): A Daytona 500 winner in 2015, Logano’s experience in pack racing makes him a solid pick.
  • Ryan Blaney (+1300): Blaney, coming off a championship season, has the momentum to potentially claim his first Daytona 500 win.

Contenders:

  • Kyle Larson (+1400): Larson’s versatility across tracks makes him a dark horse, though Daytona hasn’t been his strongest venue.
  • Chase Elliott (+1500): Elliott’s consistent top performances at Daytona make him a constant threat for the win.
  • Chris Buescher (+1700): Buescher has shown strong performances on superspeedways, which could translate into a win.
  • William Byron (+1800): Defending champion Byron looks to achieve a rare back-to-back victory.

Longshots with Potential:

  • Bubba Wallace (+2200): With multiple top finishes at Daytona, Wallace could surprise.
  • Austin Cindric (+2400): The 2022 Daytona 500 winner, Cindric’s odds suggest he’s not to be overlooked despite the competition.
  • Noah Gragson (+4000): A new team might just be the boost Gragson needs to make a statement in his Daytona debut.
  • Michael McDowell (+4000): After his surprising 2021 win, McDowell remains a longshot with the capability to repeat.

Dark Horses:

  • Zane Smith (+7000): Young talent with solid performances in the lower series at Daytona.
  • Helio Castroneves (+6500): An IndyCar legend, Castroneves brings an intriguing element to NASCAR’s premier event.

Betting Strategy:

  • Race Winner: Betting on the outright winner can be risky due to the race’s chaotic nature. Consider diversifying your bets across a few drivers.
  • Place Betting: Given the high crash rate, betting on a driver to place in the top 3 or top 5 can offer good returns with less risk.
  • Head-to-Head Matchups: These can be more predictable, focusing on which of two drivers will finish higher, regardless of their overall position.
  • Prop Bets: Look for bets on specific outcomes like leading the most laps or being the first to crash out.

Final Thoughts:

The Daytona 500 is as much about luck as it is about skill, making it one of the most exciting races for betting. With a field full of talented drivers, strategic bets can lead to significant wins. Remember, the nature of speedway racing at Daytona means that anyone can win, so keep an eye on the longshots and prepare for an unpredictable race day.

Good luck, and may your bets be as thrilling as the race itself!

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NBA Cup Finals Preview | Thunder vs Bucks | Dec 17th 2024

thundervsbucks

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Milwaukee Bucks: Betting Preview for the Emirates Cup Final

Game Overview: Tonight, the much-anticipated Emirates Cup final pits the Oklahoma City Thunder against the Milwaukee Bucks at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Both teams have showcased their prowess throughout the tournament, with the Thunder leading the Western Conference and the Bucks holding a strong position in the East.

Team Form and Player Performance:

  • Oklahoma City Thunder: The Thunder has been on a roll with a 20-5 record, showcasing an elite defense that ranks first in the league, allowing just 103.5 points per game. Their recent form includes a five-game winning streak, with their latest triumph over the Houston Rockets in the semifinals, where Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led with 32 points. Jalen Williams has been a key contributor, averaging 21.7 points per game, and the team’s depth with players like Isaiah Hartenstein has been crucial.
  • Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks have a record of 14-11 but have been resurgent of late with a 12-3 run. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been pivotal, with performances like 32 points, 14 rebounds, and 9 assists in the semifinal against Atlanta. The Bucks are known for their three-point shooting, leading the league at 38.9%. However, their rebounding could be a concern against OKC’s tough interior defense.

Key Matchups:

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. OKC’s Defense: Giannis’s rebounding and scoring ability will be tested against OKC’s league-leading defense. His recent form and the Bucks’ reliance on his performance make him a focal point for any betting considerations.
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Bucks’ Perimeter Defense: SGA’s scoring and rebounding capabilities could challenge Milwaukee’s guards. His consistency, having scored 25+ points in 21 of 25 games this season, suggests he’ll be a significant factor in the game’s outcome.

Betting Angles:

  • Spread: OKC is favored by 4.5 points.
  • Over/Under: The total points line might hover around 223.5.

Conclusion:

This final could be a defensive showdown with moments of offensive brilliance. The Thunder’s defense might be the deciding factor, but the Bucks’ experience and shooting could keep them in the game.

Remember, betting outcomes can be volatile, and while this preview provides insights based on current form and statistics, always bet responsibly.

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NBA Predictions Future Bets | Western Conference | 2025

WesternConfArticle

NBA Predictions – WESTERN CONFERENCE OVER/UNDER WIN TOTALS

OVER 49.5 DALLAS MAVERICKS – Dallas won 50 games a year ago and finished the season 10th in Offensive Efficiency, 13th in DEFF. The Mavs should be better this season with a full season of PJ Washington on the roster after coming over from Charlotte at the trade deadline. With Washington in the lineup the Mavs finished the regular season on a 20-9 run.

Dallas also got great play from Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively at the Center position who combined for an average of 10PPG and 6.9 RPG.

They added depth with Spencer Dinwiddie and Klay Thompson. Both of those players are more than capable of putting up big offensive numbers, especially Klay who has a career average of 19.6PPG and he made 3.5 3-pointers last season, 5th in the NBA.

Let’s not forget, the Mavs have one of the most dynamic backcourts with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Doncic led the league in scoring last season at 33.9PPG and was 2nd in assists at 9.8 per game. Kyrie made 3.0 3-pointers per game last season and hit over 41% from Deep. This is a deep roster and very capable of winning 50+ even if they sustain an injury or two.

UNDER 47.5 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES – The Grizzlies won just 27-games a year ago but played 73-games without Ja Morant. Morant is back this season but this roster is not good enough to get to 48-wins.

Memphis was 30th in Offensive Efficiency rating, 12th Defensively. The starting lineup looks like Morant, Marcus Smart, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr and rookie Zach Edey.

Smart played in just 20-games last season and is clearly not the player he once was after 10 seasons in the league. Desmond Bane is a solid #2 but should see a decline in his usage with Morant back in the lineup. Jaren Jackson Jr has been limited to 63 and 66 games the past two season and clearly has injury concerns.

One big concern for Memphis is their rebounding as they ranked 25th in Rebound Rate a year ago. Will rookie Zach Edey help in that category? Two years ago this team had a much better roster and they won 51-games to finish second in the West, this roster isn’t going to get to 48.

OVER 47.5 PHOENIX SUNS – The Suns have the luxury of having three guys on their roster that can literally go for 40-points on any given night.

Kevin Durant is still a premier scorer in this league and is coming off a 27.1ppg season. Durant remained healthy for most of the season, playing in 75-games. The second option, or first for that matter is Devin Booker who also scored 27.1ppg last year and averaged a career high in assists at 6.9 per game. Bradley Beal played in 53 games last season, shot 43% from beyond the arc and scored 18.2ppg.

If we look at Efficiency ratings this team was 9th in OEFF, 14th in DEFF with the 11th best Efficiency Differential.

The Suns got better in the offseason with the addition of Tyus Jones and they still have depth with Grayson Allen, and Royce O’Neal off the bench.

The Suns were a top 10 team in Rebound Rate and Effective Field goal percentage.  Phoenix won 49 games a year ago and should get to that number again in 2025.

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