Author: Lee Kostroski

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NHL free bet | Sabres vs Hurricanes | Nov 8 2025

ASA NHL free bet: Under 6.5 Goals Buffalo Sabres at Carolina Hurricanes, 7pm ET

Fade the over in this lopsided matchup and back the Under 6.5 (-120 or better) with high confidence and a projected +7% edge. Carolina enters with the NHL’s stingiest defense (xGA/60 at 2.2, No. 1) and a top-5 penalty kill (85%) that has suffocated opponents all season, allowing just 2.69 goals per game. Buffalo’s road offense ranks bottom-10 (2.6 GF/G away) with poor shot quality and a regressing 9.0% shooting percentage, generating minimal high-danger looks against elite structures like Carolina’s.Goaltending seals it: Frederik Andersen/Pyotr Kochetkov the Hurricanes’ tandem sit top-10 in SV% (.915+), while Alex Lyon/Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen faces a barrage but benefits from Carolina’s low-event style. Ongoing injuries to key play-drivers (Slavin, Gostisbehere for CAR; Benson for BUF) further depress pace and transition chances.Our Poisson model spits out 5.5 expected goals (65% probability Under 6.5), crushing the implied ~58% after juice. Combined xG/60 clocks in at just 5.2—classic Carolina home trap game. Pound the Under; this one finishes 3-1 or 4-2 at the absolute ceiling.

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College Football Free Bet | E Michigan vs Bowling Green | Nov 8

#154 ASA College Football Free Bet: ON Eastern Michigan -2 over Bowling Green, Saturday at 1 PM ET

BG is definitely heading the wrong direction losing 5 of their last 6 games with their only win coming vs Toledo in a game the Falcons were outgained 429 to 226. 

They have massive problems at QB with starter Drew Pyne banged up and if he can’t go it’s most likely 4th stringer Hunter Najm.  There is some turmoil in this program as well as 3 players were arrested last weekend and they fired their offensive coordinator this week. 

BG’s last 3 games have all been non-covers and not close with an average of loss of 21+ points vs the number.  EMU is in a good spot at home and coming off a bye after covering 5 of their last 7 games.  They went into the bye after playing one of the top teams in the MAC (Ohio) to the wire at home losing 28-21 on a Bobcat TD with under 1:00 minute remaining in the game. 

If we focus on MAC stats only (comparable teams) EMU has been the better team with better YPG, YPP, and point differentials.  We like Eastern Michigan vs a team that seems to be in a bit of disarray.  College Football free bet today is on EMU.

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NFL free bet today | Falcons vs Patriots | Nov 2 2025

#455 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons +5.5 over New England Patriots, Sunday a 1 PM ET

The Falcons are in desperation mode after losing back to back games and dropping to 3-4.  Last week they were embarrassed by Miami which gives us some extra line value here.  The look ahead line was +3 and now they are getting 5.5 points.  Atlanta was without QB Penix and top WR London last week and they are both back for this game.  Despite their 3-4 record, the Birds have been favored in 4 of their last 5 games getting points only from Buffalo during that stretch (+4 vs Bills).  Now they are getting nearly a TD vs a New England team that has a solid record but has played, by far, the weakest schedule in the NFL.  5 of their 6 wins have come against the Browns, Titans, Saints, Dolphins, and Panthers.  Those 5 teams have a combined 10-31.  The one solid win was 23-20 vs Buffalo (Atlanta also beat Buffalo 24-14) in a game the Pats were outgained but benefited from 3 Bills.  New England is just 2-2 at home this year with losses to the Raiders and Steelers.  They were just 2.5 point favorites vs Las Vegas and they were home dog vs Pittsburgh.  Now laying 5.5 vs a decent Atlanta team?  Despite the worse record and playing the much more difficult schedule, the Falcons have comparable YPG (Atlanta +68 YPG & NE +58 YPG) and YPP differential numbers (both +0.5 YPP margins).  The Falcons have the better D (#2 in the NFL in total D and #1 pass defense) and should be able to slow down Pats QB Maye in this game.  Atlanta will be out to prove a point after a horrible performance last week and we look for a close game.  Take the points.   

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NBA Free Bet | Knicks vs Bulls | Oct 31 2025

ASA NBA Free Bet UNDER 233.5 NY Knicks at Chicago Bulls, 8:10pm ET

Our model is projecting 221.6 total points being scored in this game and we couldn’t agree more with it’s findings. The Bulls have the 4th best Defensive Efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.085-points per possession. The Knicks aren’t far behind allowing 1.120PPP (11th). The Bulls currently have slightly faster pace of play numbers but they’ve also faced four teams that prefer to play uptempo. The Knicks are the 24th slowest team in the NBA at 98.7 possessions per game so they’ll look to muck this game up. The Bulls currently have solid Offensive Efficiency numbers, but again that is impacted by their schedule. The Knicks are averaging 1.120-points per possession which ranks 24th in the league. New York is shooting just 40.6% on the season (28th) and hit just 33% from beyond the arc. The Bulls have solid shooting percentages but the four teams they’ve beaten this season rank 18th or worse in FG% defense, which has inflated those numbers. We like UNDER in this one as todays NBA Free Bet

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NFL Free play | Dolphins vs Falcons | Oct 26 2025

#268 ASA NFL FREE PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons -7 over Miami Dolphins, Sunday a 1 PM ET

We like the Falcons to bounce back after a poor showing last Sunday @ San Francisco.  Atlanta opened as a dog last week vs the Niners and flipped to a small favorite but didn’t show up to play losing 20-10.  The yardage was dead even at 4.9 YPP (season low for the Falcons) and Atlanta was shut out on downs in their final 2 drives.  Prior to that loss, the Falcons had topped Washington by 7 and Buffalo by 10 (2 playoff caliber teams), both at home.  Miami is in a freefall.  They are now 1-6 SU on the season after getting rolled 31-6 @ Cleveland last week.  It was the first time in 11 games the Browns topped 17 points.  This will be the Browns 3rd road game in 4 weeks and they are 0-4 SU on the road (3 of those losses coming by double digits).  The Fins have internal issues and head coach McDaniel is on the hot seat to say the least.  Seems like this team is very close to imploding and if they get down in this game, it might be lights out.  Atlanta is one of 2 teams that ranks in the top 7 in total offense and total defense (other is KC).  Miami ranks 26th in total offense and 27th in total defense.  This is a terrible match up for the Dolphins defense as they rank dead last defending the run allowing 160 YPG on the ground and they are facing an Atlanta offense that averages 137 YPG rushing (4th in the NFL). No Penix Jr, No problem with vet Kirk Cousins under center. Atlanta RB Robinson (6th in the NFL in rushing yards) had a poor outing vs SF (2.9 YPC) but he should have a field day vs this defense.  Miami’s offense will be without one of the key weapons, TE Waller, and they’re already missing Tyreek Hill.  Now facing the #2 defense (Atlanta allows just 265 YPG) we expect a struggle.  Atlanta wins this home tilt by more than a TD. 

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