Author: Lee Kostroski

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NHL free pick | Flyers vs Blues | Nov 20th

ASAwins NHL play on: Philadelphia Flyers -130 vs. St. Louis Blues – 7PM ET

The Flyers (9-6-3) welcome the struggling Blues (6-9-5) to Wells Fargo Center on Thursday night, and everything points to Philly cashing as -130 home favorites in a bounce-back spot. Scheduling is a massive edge: Philadelphia enters with three full days of rest after a 1-5 loss in Dallas on the 15th, while St. Louis is following an OT loss in Toronto on Tuesday —fatigue could hit hard against the Flyers’ high-tempo forecheck. Philly’s owned this matchup lately, ripping off three straight wins in the series, including a wild 6-5 shootout thriller on Nov. 14 in St. Louis where they outshot the Blues 31-17 despite the high score. The Flyers’ defense has been a brick wall league-wide, allowing just 2.83 goals per game (10th in NHL), compared to Buffalo’s leaky 3.84 GA/G (32nd-worst). Goaltending tilts Philly’s way too: Samuel Ersson (3-1-2, 3.30 GAA) gets the nod in net, backed by a unit that’s eigth-fewest in goals conceded (51 total), while Jordan Binnington (4-5-3, 3.34 GAA, .869 SV%) faces a Flyers attack that’s clicking at home (5-2-2). Computer models love the Orange and Black here (projected 4-2 final), and with the Blues ranking 30th in goals allowed, expect Philly to control and convert. NHL teams with 3+ days rest against an opponent on shorter rest hit at a 60% rate in 2024-25. Grab the Flyers ML at -130—puck drop 7 p.m. ET. 

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NHL free winner today | Oilers vs Sabres | Nov 17 2-025

ASAwins NHL free play on OVER 6.5 goal Edmonton at Buffalo, 7pm ET

Tonight’s Edmonton at Buffalo game is the clearest high-event spot on the slate, with the model projecting 7.2 total goals and finding an 8% edge on the Over 6.5 (currently -120 juice). Both teams rank top-8 in pace and expected goals over the last 10 games, Edmonton’s power play remains lethal on the road, and Buffalo’s goaltending has been leaky against high-danger chances. With the total shaded to the over at -20 already, the model still sees strong value pushing past 6.5 in what should be an up-tempo, mistake-filled affair in KeyBank Center. Edmonton on 5-1 run to the OVER, Buffalo OVER in 4 straight.

We try to post free picks as often as we can so be sure to check back daily for any free betting advice we may have for the day.

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NHL free bet | Sabres vs Hurricanes | Nov 8 2025

ASA NHL free bet: Under 6.5 Goals Buffalo Sabres at Carolina Hurricanes, 7pm ET

Fade the over in this lopsided matchup and back the Under 6.5 (-120 or better) with high confidence and a projected +7% edge. Carolina enters with the NHL’s stingiest defense (xGA/60 at 2.2, No. 1) and a top-5 penalty kill (85%) that has suffocated opponents all season, allowing just 2.69 goals per game. Buffalo’s road offense ranks bottom-10 (2.6 GF/G away) with poor shot quality and a regressing 9.0% shooting percentage, generating minimal high-danger looks against elite structures like Carolina’s.Goaltending seals it: Frederik Andersen/Pyotr Kochetkov the Hurricanes’ tandem sit top-10 in SV% (.915+), while Alex Lyon/Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen faces a barrage but benefits from Carolina’s low-event style. Ongoing injuries to key play-drivers (Slavin, Gostisbehere for CAR; Benson for BUF) further depress pace and transition chances.Our Poisson model spits out 5.5 expected goals (65% probability Under 6.5), crushing the implied ~58% after juice. Combined xG/60 clocks in at just 5.2—classic Carolina home trap game. Pound the Under; this one finishes 3-1 or 4-2 at the absolute ceiling.

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College Football Free Bet | E Michigan vs Bowling Green | Nov 8

#154 ASA College Football Free Bet: ON Eastern Michigan -2 over Bowling Green, Saturday at 1 PM ET

BG is definitely heading the wrong direction losing 5 of their last 6 games with their only win coming vs Toledo in a game the Falcons were outgained 429 to 226. 

They have massive problems at QB with starter Drew Pyne banged up and if he can’t go it’s most likely 4th stringer Hunter Najm.  There is some turmoil in this program as well as 3 players were arrested last weekend and they fired their offensive coordinator this week. 

BG’s last 3 games have all been non-covers and not close with an average of loss of 21+ points vs the number.  EMU is in a good spot at home and coming off a bye after covering 5 of their last 7 games.  They went into the bye after playing one of the top teams in the MAC (Ohio) to the wire at home losing 28-21 on a Bobcat TD with under 1:00 minute remaining in the game. 

If we focus on MAC stats only (comparable teams) EMU has been the better team with better YPG, YPP, and point differentials.  We like Eastern Michigan vs a team that seems to be in a bit of disarray.  College Football free bet today is on EMU.

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NFL free bet today | Falcons vs Patriots | Nov 2 2025

#455 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons +5.5 over New England Patriots, Sunday a 1 PM ET

The Falcons are in desperation mode after losing back to back games and dropping to 3-4.  Last week they were embarrassed by Miami which gives us some extra line value here.  The look ahead line was +3 and now they are getting 5.5 points.  Atlanta was without QB Penix and top WR London last week and they are both back for this game.  Despite their 3-4 record, the Birds have been favored in 4 of their last 5 games getting points only from Buffalo during that stretch (+4 vs Bills).  Now they are getting nearly a TD vs a New England team that has a solid record but has played, by far, the weakest schedule in the NFL.  5 of their 6 wins have come against the Browns, Titans, Saints, Dolphins, and Panthers.  Those 5 teams have a combined 10-31.  The one solid win was 23-20 vs Buffalo (Atlanta also beat Buffalo 24-14) in a game the Pats were outgained but benefited from 3 Bills.  New England is just 2-2 at home this year with losses to the Raiders and Steelers.  They were just 2.5 point favorites vs Las Vegas and they were home dog vs Pittsburgh.  Now laying 5.5 vs a decent Atlanta team?  Despite the worse record and playing the much more difficult schedule, the Falcons have comparable YPG (Atlanta +68 YPG & NE +58 YPG) and YPP differential numbers (both +0.5 YPP margins).  The Falcons have the better D (#2 in the NFL in total D and #1 pass defense) and should be able to slow down Pats QB Maye in this game.  Atlanta will be out to prove a point after a horrible performance last week and we look for a close game.  Take the points.   

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