Author: Lee Kostroski

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NBA Prediction or FREE BET | Suns vs Heat | Jan 29th 2024

ASA FREE NBA BET on Miami Heat -3 vs Phoenix Suns, 7:30PM ET

This is the ‘fishy’ line of the day as the Heat are favored despite losing 6-straight games against a Suns team that is 7-2 SU their last nine games.

The scheduling advantage for the Heat is clear as they are rested for this game while the Suns come off a game last night versus the Magic. Not only is this the Suns 2nd of a back-to-back, but also their 3rd game in four nights and 6th game in nine days.

In the loss last night to the Magic the Suns starters logged heavy minutes with Booker, Beal and Durant all playing 35+ minutes. The Heat have lost extended minutes to multiple starters this season but are now finally getting healthy with a full complement of players tonight.

Phoenix as a road underdog this season is 4-4 ATS with an average margin of victory in those games of minus -5.1PPG. Miami is below .500 as a home favorite at 8-9 ATS but they do have a positive differential of +2.6PPG AND have also covered 5 of their last seven at home as a favorite.

HOUSTON ROCKETS – FRED VANVLEET OVER 14.5PTS

VanVleet is averaging over 17PPG on the season and 17.2PPG in his last ten games. He has totaled more than 14.5 points in 6 of his last ten games. Tonight VanVleet should have a big scoring night against a Lakers team that allows the 4th most points to PG’s on the season at 26.6PPG. The Lakers have been especially bad defending Point Guards in the last two weeks allowing 30.5PPG in that stretch.

WASHINGTON WIZARDS – TYUS JONES OVER 20.5 POINTS+ASSISTS

Jones is inline for a solid game tonight against a Spurs defense that has issues containing opposing Point Guards. San Antonio allows the most points to PG’s this season at 27.5PPG and the 6th most Assists per game at 9.1. In Washington’s last ten games they have faced teams that rank top 12 in fewest points allowed to PG’s and his average in that stretch of games is still 20.8. Jones recently faced the Spurs and his brother Tre and he put up 19 Points+Assists. In two recent games against a Pistons team that is similar to the Spurs defensively he finished with 21 and 29 P&A’s.

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NBA free bet | 1-28-24 | Raptors vs Hawks prediction

ASA play on Toronto Raptors +7 at Atlanta Hawks, 6PM

The Atlanta Hawks shouldn’t be laying this many points to anyone in the NBA not named the Pistons, Spurs, Wizards or Hornets. This team is lacking effort on the defensive end of the court that is obvious to a casual observer, let alone statisticians. For the season the Hawks rank 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.204-points per possession. They just gave up 73-points to Luka Doncic and 148 to the Mavericks as a team. They have allowed 122, 134 and 148 in their last three games. Part of the problem seems to be several trade rumors involving this team which are impacting their on the court chemistry. Atlanta is 8-13 SU at home with a negative differential of minus -3.4PPG.  Toronto made their trade when they shipped Siakam to the Pacers for Bruce Brown who should start for the injured Quickly in this one. The Raptors have lost 4 straight games they came against a hot Bulls team, the Knicks and Clippers. The one bad loss in that stretch was at home to the Grizzlies by 8-points. The Raptors were recently +7.5-points at New York and the Knicks are far superior to this Hawks team. Atlanta was an -8.5-point favorite at home against the 10-36 Spurs and the Raptors rate more than 2.5-points better than San Antonio. These two teams have similar offensive efficiency ratings but the Raptors are much better defensively. Grab the points.

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NBA Prop Bets | 1-27-24 | Free NBA picks

ASA’s NBA Player Prop Bets for Saturday, January 27th, 2024

We had an incredible +50-Net unit season picking NBA player props last season and are now at a point in this season where we have enough data to start producing more bets on a regular basis. We will offer some free betting advice here on a regular basis so be sure to check back daily.

My betting strategy with these props. If you are betting at an online fantasy site then you already know you have to essentially parlay your bets into a minimum of 2-teamers. What I’ve done is bet 2-teamers with every combination of my bets. If you have online access to a Sports Book you can bet these as straight bets.

John Collins Utah Jazz OVER 22.5 Points+Rebounds

Rudy Gobert Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 28.5 Points+Rebounds

Steph Curry Golden State Warriors OVER 31.5 Points+Rebounds

Luka Doncic Dallas Mavericks UNDER 36.5 Points

Best of luck with your wagers today.

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NFL predictions | 1/28/24 | Player Props and Free bet

ASA player props and free bet January 28th

BALTIMORE RAVENS – LAMAR JACKSON OVER 10.5 RUSHING ATTEMPTS

Jackson’s rushing total would be an easy write up but last week his rushing total was 55.5. This is easily the highest rushing total he’s had in the last ten games…so no value whatsoever.  We like Over his attempts of 10.5 instead. Jackson has averaged 9.35 rushing attempts per game and ran it 11 times last week against a good Texans rush defense. Jackson has rushed it 11 or more times in 4 of the last six games he’s played in. Last week Buffalo Bills QB Allen ran it 12 times against this Chiefs defense. With Kansas City in man coverage defensively that gives Jackson more opportunities to run with the DB’s backs to the line of scrimmage.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS – BROCK PURDY OVER 274.5 PASSING YARDS

Purdy has been under 60% completion rate 3 times this season. Once last week in rainy conditions vs. Green Bay and once each vs. Cleveland and Baltimore who both rank top 5 in opposing QB’s complete percentage. Purdy now faces a Lions defense that is 30th in passing yards per attempt and 31st in yards per completion.

The Lions Pass defense in the last 5 games has been atrocious. Here is what the last 5 oppossing QB’s have done to them. .

N Mullens 411 (261)

D Prescott 345 (ssn ave 265)

N Mullens 396 (261)

M Stafford 367 (ssn ave 264)

B Mayfield 349 *and how many big plays did he miss?* (ssn ave 238)

Purdy averaged 266.5PYPG this season and threw for over 272 8 times this season.

DETROIT LIONS JARED GOFF – OVER 255.5 PASSING YARDS

He’s thrown for over this number in 6 straight, and 12 times this season overall. He averages 270.5PYPG. San Francisco is ‘average’ or below in pass defense. They allow 213.4PYPG (14th), allow 23.9 completions per game (30th) and are 21st in completion % against. If the Lions fall behind, they will abandon the running game and throw it on every down. Detroit was 10th in passing attempts per game this season, 2nd in passing yards per game, 5th in completion percentage and 7th in yards per completion.

FREE BET DETROIT LIONS OVER TEAM TOTAL 20.5

The Lions averaged 27.2PPG on the season which was 5th most in the league. On the road they put up 24.1PPG. Detroit was 9th in Yards Per Point scored as it took them just 14.4 yards gained for every 1-point scored. The Lions averaged 5.9 yards per play and have an offense capable of explosive plays. They scored 20 or more points in 16 of nineteen games this season.

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Philadelphia 76ers vs Indiana Pacers Prediction | 1/25/24

ASA play on OVER 237.5 Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacer, 7PM ET

Tonight the Philadelphia 76ers travel to Indiana to take on the Pacers. This number hasn’t been set high enough and the bet to make is on the Over the Total. Indiana just faced a Nuggets team that plays much slower than the 76ers and that O/U number was essentially the same at 237. Philadelphia is 5th in offensive efficiency this season averaging 1.207-points per possession and rank 15th in pace of play. The Indiana Pacers are 2nd in pace of play at 102.6 possession per game and rank 1st in OEFF while scoring on average 124.6PPG. Indiana also allows the 2nd most points per game at 122.9PPG and rank 26th in DEFF. Philadelphia is coming off a 133-123 win over the Spurs who play at the same frenetic pace as the Pacers and are equally as bad defensively. In the two meetings between these two teams this season they have produced 263 and 258 total points. Even without Haliburton for the Pacers we like a higher scoring game here. Bet Over!

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