Author: Lee Kostroski

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Seahawks vs Bengals Prediction – Sunday, Oct 15th 2023

ASA free bet on: #257/258 OVER 45 Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday 1PM ET

You should check the weather before betting this Over, but if the wind isn’t as bad as they are predicting this O/U number will move up dramatically. We have an opportunity to buy low here on the Bengals offense that has underachieved this season prior to last week’s game against the Cardinals. This Cincinnati offense is essentially the same unit that has been top 9 in scoring for two straight seasons at over 25.7PPG. QB Burrows was injured early this season, but he looked much better last week against the Cards throwing for 317 yards with 3 TD’s to 1 INT. He was also willing to push the ball down field completing 8 of 12 passes of 10+ yards. The Seahawks pass defense allows opposing QB’s to complete 68.5% of their pass attempts (25th), give up 6.8 yards per pass attempt (21st) and 280 passing yards per game which is 30th. Those numbers come despite facing Carolina and the Giants who have 2 of the three worst offenses in terms of DVOA in the league. In their other two games the Seahawks allowed the Rams/Stafford to throw for 334 yards and the Lions/Goff to complete 28/35 passes for 323 yards. Offensively we expect the Seahawks to have success against this Bengals defense and put up plenty of points on their own. Seattle is 13th in yards per rush at 4.4, the Bengals allow 5.3YPC (30th). Seattle averages 5.6YPP, Cincinnati gives up 5.9YPP (25th). The Hawks are averaging 27.8PPG on the year,6th most and face a Bengals D giving up 22.8PPG (20th). This game should be a back-and-forth affair with plenty of points by both teams.

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Florida vs South Carolina bet | Saturday, Oct 14th 2023 |

ASA free bet on: #142 South Carolina -2 vs Florida, 3:30PM ET

South Carolina is in a good situation here coming off a bye week and playing with revenge from a blowout loss a year ago to Florida 6-38. The big difference between these two teams on paper is their defenses as the Gators rank in the top half of the country in most categories and the Gamecocks don’t. But Florida is over-rated in our opinion and was recently exposed by Kentucky who gashed them for 329 rushing yards on 36 carries. Even a bad Vanderbilt team averaged 6.4 yards per play against the Gators last week, which is well above their season average of 5.5YPP. South Carolina is better than their 2-3 SU record as the three losses this season have come against ranked teams with a combined 15-1 SU record. SC QB Rattler is completing over 72% of his pass attempts (10th) for 312 passing yards per game which is 14th best in the nation. Florida has some impressive pass defense statistics but those comes against a weak-passing schedule with three of their games versus teams that rank 108th or worse in passing YPG. The Gators are ‘average’ on offense ranking 59th in total YPG, 63rd in rushing YPG and 55th in passing YPG. We can’t see this Florida team keeping up with the Gamecocks in this one. We are backing the revenge minded host here.

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NFL free pick Broncos vs Chiefs – Oct 12th 2023

ASA’s DENVER BRONCOS vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-10.5) [47]

NFL PLAYER PROP BETS – OVER 26.5 RUSHING + RECEIVING YARDS – Jerick McKinnon – KC Chiefs

Denver’s defense is historically bad. Worse than the 2017 Browns team that went 0-16 and the 2008 Lions team that also went 0-16 through the first 5 games of the season.

The Broncos defense is allowing 187 rushing yards per game to opponents (32nd)

They give up 5.9 yards per rush attempt (32nd) and own the worst D in the league when it comes to defending running backs.

Kansas City is 13th in rushing attempts per game at 27.6, and 9th in average yards per rush attempt at 4.5.

We won’t get involved in the Chiefs featured running back Isiah Pacheco’s rushing props as his number tonight is 74.5 rushing yards which is significantly higher than what his rushing O/U has been all season in the low to mid-50’s.

What we will be on though is OVER 26.5 RUSHING + RECEIVING YARDS for Jerick McKinnon. He has totaled 22+ rushing/receiving yards in 3 of the Chiefs last four games. In fact, he’s had 18 or more receiving yards alone in 3 of his last four games. He’s been targeted by Mahomes 8 total times in the past four weeks and should get his fair share of looks in this game. We also like McKinnon anytime TD prop at +320.

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NFL Players Props – Packers vs. Raiders, Oct 9th 2023

Josh Jacobs Over 72.5 Rush Yards (-115)

Green Bay was run all over by David Montgomery their last outing and has historically been awful against the run in recent years. The Packers are giving up 155 ypg (31st) on the ground in 2023 which is an ideal matchup for Jacobs who led the entire NFL in rushing last season. Despite some slow games for Jacobs so far, expect him to see heavy usage, especially with Davante Adams being questionable with a shoulder injury. Jacobs is one of the most explosive and physical runners in football and his talent will eventually lead to production this year. 

Jimmy Garoppolo Over 1.5 Pass TDs (+105)

With Davante Adams Questionable, Jimmy’s props and the Raiders receiving props are all in question. Adams seems to be trending towards playing and will no doubt be a dominating force in this game if he does. Adams is virtually unstoppable in the redzone where he can win routes in a phone booth. Garoppolo has two passing TDs in two of three games so far this year, and with a full WR corps, he has a great chance to throw two once again. Keep an eye on Adams throughout Monday for clarity on his status. 

Jordan Love Over .5 INTs (-125)

Love has thrown three picks in the last two games and the offense has struggled heavily in those outings. Green Bay ranks 31st in rushing yards per game, meaning Love has to throw more than they would want. Love has the 7th highest percentage of turnover-worthy throws on passes 20 yards or more according to Jacob Morley. Inaccuracy with deep passes is the easiest way to rack up INTs in the NFL. A first year starting QB will always make mistakes and on primetime TV last Thursday, Love made a few. We expect that trend to continue this week. 

Romeo Doubs Over 3.5 Recs (-155)

Coming off a nine catch game against Detroit, Doubs is the most reliable receiver in Green Bay. Sure handed and a precise route runner, Doubs is averaging five catches a game in 2023. 25 targets in the past two games, shows the trust Love has in Doubs and 4+ receptions for him on MNF should be a walk in the park. Christian Watson is questionable and if he is limited at all, it leaves even more opportunity for Doubs. 

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TNF Free Bet – Bears vs. Commanders – October 5th 2023

ASA FREE PLAY 1ST HALF TOTAL BET – OVER 21.5 CHICAGO BEARS @ WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

These teams should put up plenty of points here in the first half to cash this over. Games involving the Bears this season have averaged 25.3 total points per game by halftime.

Ironically, games involving the Commanders have averaged that exact same total of 25.3PPG.

Defensively Washington is solid against the Pass but susceptible against the run. The Commanders allow 4.5 Yards Per Rush (26th) and 122.5RYPG (21st). The Bears can exploit that weakness with their rushing offense that is 5th in Yards Per Rush at 4.7 and 13th in overall rushing YPG.

Washington allows 30PPG (29th) which is a full TD more than league average.

While we are on the subject of defense….

The Bears defense allows 6.2YPPL which ranks 29th in the league. They give up 34.2PPG which is 2nd to last in the league.

Washington hasn’t been great offensively but QB Howell should have success here against a Bears Pass D is 32nd in Yards Per Completion, 31st in Yards Per Pass Attempt and 31st in opposing quarterbacks QBR.

It all adds up to plenty of points in the 1st half of this game and we will back the OVER 21.5 1st HALF.

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