Author: Lee Kostroski

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NBA Cup Finals Preview | Thunder vs Bucks | Dec 17th 2024

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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Milwaukee Bucks: Betting Preview for the Emirates Cup Final

Game Overview: Tonight, the much-anticipated Emirates Cup final pits the Oklahoma City Thunder against the Milwaukee Bucks at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Both teams have showcased their prowess throughout the tournament, with the Thunder leading the Western Conference and the Bucks holding a strong position in the East.

Team Form and Player Performance:

  • Oklahoma City Thunder: The Thunder has been on a roll with a 20-5 record, showcasing an elite defense that ranks first in the league, allowing just 103.5 points per game. Their recent form includes a five-game winning streak, with their latest triumph over the Houston Rockets in the semifinals, where Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led with 32 points. Jalen Williams has been a key contributor, averaging 21.7 points per game, and the team’s depth with players like Isaiah Hartenstein has been crucial.
  • Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks have a record of 14-11 but have been resurgent of late with a 12-3 run. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been pivotal, with performances like 32 points, 14 rebounds, and 9 assists in the semifinal against Atlanta. The Bucks are known for their three-point shooting, leading the league at 38.9%. However, their rebounding could be a concern against OKC’s tough interior defense.

Key Matchups:

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. OKC’s Defense: Giannis’s rebounding and scoring ability will be tested against OKC’s league-leading defense. His recent form and the Bucks’ reliance on his performance make him a focal point for any betting considerations.
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Bucks’ Perimeter Defense: SGA’s scoring and rebounding capabilities could challenge Milwaukee’s guards. His consistency, having scored 25+ points in 21 of 25 games this season, suggests he’ll be a significant factor in the game’s outcome.

Betting Angles:

  • Spread: OKC is favored by 4.5 points.
  • Over/Under: The total points line might hover around 223.5.

Conclusion:

This final could be a defensive showdown with moments of offensive brilliance. The Thunder’s defense might be the deciding factor, but the Bucks’ experience and shooting could keep them in the game.

Remember, betting outcomes can be volatile, and while this preview provides insights based on current form and statistics, always bet responsibly.

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NBA player prop bets | December 17th 2024 | Emirates Cup Final

ASA NBA PLAYER PROP UNDER 11.5 REBOUND GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO – MILWAUKEE BUCKS

Giannis just went over his rebounding prop against the Hawks in Emirates Cup play the other nightwith 14 but Atlanta allows the most rebounds to Power Forwards in the NBA 15.4 per game. Giannis has only been over this total 2 times in his last 10 games and OKC allows the 4th fewest rebounds per game to PF this season at 8.2. NBA player prop bet – UNDER 11.5 REBOUNDS Giannis Antetokounmpo.

ASA NBA PLAYER PROP OVER 6.5 POINTS AJ GREEN – MILWAUKEE BUCKS

Green is averaging 8.3PPG in his last ten games and is playing an average of 24 ½ minutes per game over that same 10 game period. He has scored 6 or more points in 9 straight games. He is shooting 45.2% from Deep and with Giannis, Lillard and Middleton getting all of the Thunders defensive attention he should get 6+ field goal attempts up in this one. You may want to consider Over 1.5 made 3-pointers but will have to lay high juice at -155.

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NFL FREE BET | Steelers vs Eagles Prediction | Dec 15 2024

#469/470 ASA PLAY ON Under 43 Points – Pittsburgh Steelers vs Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

Two high level defenses rule the day here.  The Eagles lead the NFL allowing only 4.7 YPP and since their bye in week 5, they have allowed only 1.29 points per drive which is tops in the NFL during that time.  They also limit explosive plays giving up an average of just 2 plays per game of more than 20 yards since their bye which is also best in the NFL. 

They haven’t allowed a single team to top 23 points since week 5 and are allowing just 15 PPG over their last 9.  During that span they’ve held some high level offensive teams in check giving up 19 points vs Baltimore, 17 vs Cincinnati, and 18 vs Washington. 

We think the Steelers struggle on offense here with their top playmaker at WR Pickens who is out with a hamstring issue.  Last week without Pickens, Pittsburgh was only able to put up 267 total yards vs Cleveland and QB Wilson only had 158 yards passing. 

The Philly offense has been all that spectacular as of late failing to top 300 total yards in each of their last 2 games vs Baltimore and Carolina.  Their overall offensive numbers are decent (11th in YPP) but let’s keep in mind they have not faced a top 10 defense the entire season.  Not one.  In fact, not only have they not taken on a high level defense this year, they’ve already faced 7 of the 8 worst defenses (total defense) this season. 

The Steelers stop unit is top 10 in total defense, YPP allowed, and rush defense.  These 2 offense rank #1 and #2 in rush attempts per game which eats clock.  They are both slow tempo teams ranking 20th & 22nd in plays per second.  Lastly, both defense are fantastic on 3rd down (#2 and #3 in opponents 3rd down conversion rate) which limits scoring drives.  We like this one to stay Under the total.  

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NBA FREE BET | Suns vs Jazz prediction | Dec 13 2024

ASA Free NBA play on Over 233.5 Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz – Friday 9:40PM ET

When these two teams have gotten together, they have scored 230+ points in 5 straight games dating back to the start of last season, including a 232 total earlier this season.

The Suns just faced two top 11 defenses in the Heat and Magic and will now take advantage of a Jazz defense that isn’t good. Utah is 29th out of 30 teams in Defensive Efficiency rating allowing 1.199-points per possession. Utah has allowed 133 and 141 in two of their last three games.

The Jazz offense has struggled at times but should  put up points in this game too against a Suns defense that has holes. Phoenix started the season playing well defensively but have now slipped to 21st in DEFF.

The Suns have allowed 121 or more points in two of their last 3 games. With the history of high scoring games between these two teams we like another one on Friday night.

BONUS – PLAYER PROP – OVER 24.5 Devin Booker scoring prop. The Jazz allow the 5th most points to PG’s this season and the 7th most to SG’s and in the first meeting this season Booker went off for 31. Booker who has topped 25-points in 7 of his last 8 games.

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NFL Free Pick | Jets vs Dolphins Prediction | Dec 8 2024

POINT TRAIN NFL FREE BET –OVER 44.5 @Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets – 1PM ET

  • There is a ton of UNDER tickets and money flowing in on this O-U number, yet the Books won’t budge off 44.5. That tells us all we need to know.
  • Miami’s offense was humming scoring with 23, 34 and 34-points in three straight games until they ran into the Packers on Thanksgiving Day in frigid temps/wind and only managed 17-points.
  • The Dolphins are averaging 5.8 yards per play in their last three games and continue to get better as Tua gets more comfortable with the offense after missing several games this season in concussion protocol.
  • Miami has a big advantage this week with their wideouts going up against a bunch of backup DB’s for the Jets. New York is prone to allowing big plays to opponents passing attacks at 10.1 yards/attempt.
  • The Jets defense has allowed 31,28 and 26 points in their last three games and 5.5 yards per play which is up from the 4.9 they allow for the season.
  • Of course, we will need the Jets to score here too, and they should after putting up 27 and 21 points the past two weeks.
  • NY is loaded offensively but haven’t put together that one break out game. With nothing left to play for they will throw caution to the wind and open up the playbook to try and play spoiler in this AFC East clash.

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