Author: ASA Inc

Posted on by

ASA – NFL Hall of Fame Game – Aug 4, 2022

ASA’s NFL PRE-SEASON HALL OF FAME GAME PREVIEW

LINE – Opened Las Vegas -1 and has been bet up to -2.5.  Total opened 33.5 and has been pushed down to 30.5

JACKSONVILLE JAGUAR NOTES – Starting QB Trevor Lawrence and back up Beathard will not play in this game.  3rd stringer Jake Luton, who has not taken a snap since 2020, will get the start.  Luton played some in Jacksonville’s 1-15 season in 2020 and finished the year with 2 TD’s and 6 interceptions.  He was then cut by the Jags and spent most of last season on Seattle’s practice squad.  Once he exits rookie Kyle Sloter from Northern Colorado will get the rest of the snaps so not much experience at QB for Jacksonville in this game.  The Jags will also be without their top 2 RB’s in this game, Etienne and Robinson.  Jacksonville was a disaster last year under head coach Urban Meyer who treated his players like college kids and had very little respect in the locker room.  They went 3-14 last year and had the worst point differential in the NFL at -204.  We expect a much improved Jacksonville squad and that’s what the oddsmakers feel as well with their win total set at 6.5 after just 3 wins last year.  They will take the field with a new head coach Doug Pederson who had solid success as Philadelphia’s head man, including a Super Bowl win in the 2017/18 season.  We think Pederson, who has been very good with QB’s, will do wonders for Lawrence this season.  Look for his numbers to improve drastically.  As far as the pre-season is concerned, Pederson has an 8-8 overall record as a head coach but in his first year at the helm for the Eagles he was 4-0 in NFLX telling us he may put some extra emphasis on winning in his first year in Florida.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS NOTES – In this NFLX game specifically, the Raiders should have the edge at QB.  No announcement yet on whether starter Derek Carr will play but his back ups are fairly experienced.  Nick Mullens has made a number of NFL starts in his career and has attempted over 600 passes.  Jarrett Stidham will also play and started a few games for the Patriots back in 2020.  Like the Jags, the Raiders also have a new head coach in Josh McDaniels, who has 2 years of head coaching experience with the Broncos in 2009 & 2010.  The Raiders were 10-7 last year and made the playoffs but their numbers didn’t support a team with that type of success.  They actually had a negative point differential of -65 which was 4th worst in the AFC despite their 10 win season.  Seven of their ten wins were by 4 points or fewer or in OT.  The Raiders actually were a perfect 4-0 in overtime games last season.  By our metrics they were probably closer to a .500 type team rather than a playoff squad.  McDaniels is a solid offensive mind who has always adapted very well to his QB strengths be it Tom Brady, Cam Newton, or Mac Jones.  The offense has added a few key pieces including GB WR Davante Adams and QB Carr is one of the underrated signal callers in the league.  The Raiders should be very good on that side of the ball.  In regards to the pre-season, Josh McDaniels had a 2-6 lifetime record but as with most 1st year head coaches, we expect him to want to win in the pre-season.   

Posted on by

Scott Rickenbach free MLB July 17

Rickenbach MLB Sunday Free Pick OVER 9 in Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners @ 2:35 ET – Action on pitchers. This is a contrarian play…like so many of mine are! But the fact is I don’t care who the starting pitchers are here. I know Flexen has good numbers. I also know Otto is likely to struggle. Yesterday’s game between these teams totaled just 3 runs despite 17 hits. No matter the starting pitchers here (my play is action), note that Seattle has won 13 straight games and scored an average of 5.4 runs per game last 11 games. The Rangers have scored an average of 5.7 runs per game in the first 9 games of this 10-game homestand and the last two games were the first two times they have been held below 5 runs in any of these games! Free Pick OVER 9 in Texas.

Posted on by

Kentucky Derby bet 2022

#10 Zandon at 3/1 odds

Who’d thought after the Blue Grass win, he’d be the morning line favorite in the Kentucky Derby at 3/1!

I texted a buddy a few weeks back and said you think Zandon will be less than 9/1 come Kentucky Derby, we both said yes around 5/6-1, I didn’t BITE and what a NUT kick now as Mike B., post him at 3/1!! Not let’s get down to business on Zandon, we CASHED big on him in the Blue Grass and our write-up and logic was spot on that afternoon.

Chad has babied this colt, one glaring thing I noticed last year, was going from that maiden win to the 1 1/8th Remsen, also not in those two races, he was a stalker and not a stone cold closer as he’s been as a 3yo.

Zandon’s stride is something remarkable and it’s really been on display of late in the mornings after his big Blue Grass win. He was right back working just 14 days after his big win in the Blue Grass and our “Keeneland Contact” stated his 48.3 work looked like a 46 flat and they couldn’t believe their watch that morning.

They stated he was “Under STOUT restraint” for 3/8th and finished like a beast! He then came right back 6 days later at Churchill and was even more impressive and that work has made him the morning line favorite for the Kentucky Derby.

He had no shot in the Risen Star when facing Epicenter for the first time, he was coming into that race off a 70+ days and shipping into NOLA without a comeback effort going 1 1/8th off works is tough to do.

Zandon then hopped at the start to put himself at a further disadvantage, but he did come with a powerful late run and got up for the show money as Smile Happy finished a half-length in front of Zando at the wire.

Risen Star Internal Fractions Internal Fractions first 1/4 mile — :24.15 second 1/4 mile — :24.92 third 1/4 mile — :24.18 fourth 1/4 mile — :24.33 final 1/8 mile — :12.10 final 3/8 mile — :36.43 – SERIOUS TURN OF FOOT

They decided to bypass the La. Derby and shipped into Lexington for the Blue Grass Stakes and Zandon ran that afternoon to our expectations! He gobbled up that field with ease and passed Smile Happy down the lane, like he was tied to the rail! The second most impressive win, we’ve seen during the Triple Crown prep races.

Blue Grass Internal Fractions Internal Fractions first 1/4 mile — :25.04 second 1/4 mile — :24.25 third 1/4 mile — :24.48 fourth 1/4 mile — :24.29 final 1/8 mile — :12.29 final 3/8 mile — :36.58 – Another serious finish!!!

No one was CLOSE to him on the gallop out! This is one serious colt and Chad has babied him since the Remsen, one big eye catcher from our POV, he wintered at Payson Park and that is a very deep surface and you can get fit big time when you continuously work over that surface.

Chad not once, ever thought about entering Zandon at Gulfstream Park, just right down the road, he decides to ship into the Big Easy for the Risen Star back to Payson and then ships to Lexington for the Blue Grass Stakes. He bypassed Florida all together with this colt as he knew he could get him fit working him at Payson and wanted to get two 1 1/8th races under his belt, before the Kentucky Derby.

Here’s a quote form Chad Brown about Zandon, after the Remsen! Chad Brown said, “As you know, I have NEVER stretched a horse out that far off just one six-furlong race, but this horse is freaky good and can win the Derby.” Zandon’s Thorograph projections is a beautiful site for those that use them as their speed # bible.

ZANDON #’S – “6 ½” to “4 ½” to “2 ½” to “1 ½