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NFL Prediction | NY Jets vs SF 49ers Preview | Sept 9 2024

New York Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Preview for Monday Night Football – By ASA

NFL prediction Jets vs 49ers Game Overview: The NFL kicks off its 2024 season with a compelling matchup as the New York Jets visit the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football. This game not only marks the beginning of the season but also the return of Aaron Rodgers for the Jets, aiming to erase the memory of last year’s four-snap season due to injury.

Betting Lines:

Spread: 49ers -4.5

Over/Under: 43.5 points

Moneyline: 49ers -198, Jets +165

Key Insights:

Public and Sharp Money: There’s significant public money on the 49ers, but sharp money has influenced the line movement towards the Jets, with the line movement from Jets +6 to +4.5

Injury Concerns: Christian McCaffrey’s health status for the 49ers is pivotal. If he plays, even not at 100%, his presence could significantly affect the game’s dynamics, potentially drawing defensive attention and opening up plays for other receivers like George Kittle. McCaffrey totaled over 2,000 total yards combined rushing and receiving in 2023.

Aaron Rodgers’ Return: Rodgers’ return adds an unpredictable element. His last full season showcased his ability to make big throws, which could challenge the 49ers’ defense, especially if the Jets’ young receiving corps steps up. The Jets RB Breece Hall rushed for 994 yards in 2023 at a 4.5-yards per carry average.

Defensive Matchup: The 49ers’ defense, despite some changes, remains formidable. However, the Jets’ defense, known for its tenacity, might give even the efficient Brock Purdy a run for his money. The Jets had the #3 rated DVOA defense a year ago, the 49ers were 4th.

Player Props:

George Kittle Over 42.5 Receiving Yards: Given his performance history and the matchup, this could be a safe bet if McCaffrey’s involvement is limited. Kittle averaged 60-receiving yards per game in 2023 and the Jets D allowed TE’s to average 48.5 receiving YPG.

Jake Moody Over 1.5 Field Goals: The Jets’ defense might force field goal attempts, making this a reasonable bet. Moody was 21/25 last season on FG’s and has range, hitting 2/3 from 50+ yards.

Jets vs 49ers prediction Conclusion: This game presents a unique betting opportunity due to Rodgers’ return and the 49ers’ position post-Super Bowl. Bettors should watch closely for any last-minute updates on McCaffrey’s status, as his participation could sway the game’s flow significantly.

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NFL Rookie of the Year Prediction | By ASA | 8-26-24

NFL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR – +500 QB JAYDEN DANIELS – WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

The Washington Commanders are entering the 2024 season with a renewed sense of optimism, driven by the arrival of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and the fresh leadership of head coach Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. Daniels, a dynamic dual-threat quarterback out of LSU, was a highly-touted prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft, and the Commanders are betting on his talent to be the future of the franchise. We like a future bet on Daniels to win NFL Rookie of the Year.

Daniels brings a unique blend of athleticism, arm strength, and poise to Washington’s offense. Known for his ability to extend plays with his legs and make accurate throws on the run, Daniels is expected to add a new dimension to the Commanders’ attack. His transition to the NFL will be guided by Kingsbury, who has a proven track record of developing young quarterbacks and creating high-powered offenses. Kingsbury’s system, known for its quick tempo and emphasis on spreading the field, should complement Daniels’ skill set and allow him to thrive early in his career.

Head coach Dan Quinn, known for his defensive prowess, brings a championship pedigree to Washington, having previously led the Atlanta Falcons to a Super Bowl appearance. While Quinn’s expertise lies on the defensive side of the ball, his leadership and experience will be crucial in shaping the overall culture and identity of the team.

The Commanders’ offense will feature playmakers like wide receiver Terry McLaurin and running back Brian Robinson Jr., providing Daniels with reliable targets and a solid run game to lean on. The offensive line, bolstered by key additions in the offseason, will need to give Daniels the protection he needs to make plays and develop as a rookie.

While the learning curve for Daniels will be steep, the combination of his raw talent, Kingsbury’s offensive creativity, and Quinn’s steady hand could set the stage for an exciting new era in Washington. The 2024 season will be a crucial year of development for Daniels and the Commanders, with the potential to lay the foundation for future success. With the starting QB job handed to Daniels we like his odds at +500 to be Rookie of the Year.

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NFL Free Bet | Bengals vs Buccaneers Prediction | Aug 10th

#126 ASA FREE PLAY ON Cincinnati Bengals -6 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Saturday at 7 PM ET

This line has jumped from Cincinnati -3 to -6 this week and for good reason.  The Bengals are approaching this preseason much differently than they have the last few years. 

Head Coach Zac Taylor has seen his team struggle early in the regular season after he decided to sit most of his starters the last few years in the preseason.  Last year Cincy lost 3 of their first 4 regular season games and in 2022 they started 0-2.  Taylor has decided to take a different approach and his starters will all play on Saturday, including QB Burrow.

Once Burrow exits, the Bengals will go with Jake Browning who started 7 games last year and threw for 2,000 yards.  Tampa will sit all of their starters in this game according to head coach Todd Bowles. 

The Bucs will start Kyle Trask under center (10 career pass attempts) so big advantage to the Bengals in this game at QB.  While the Tampa starters will sit this one out, Bowles mentioned all of the rookies will play and potentially a lot. 

Reading between the lines this week, it sounds as if Cincinnati wants to win this game after winning just 1 preseason game the last 2 years.  We’ll call for the Bengals to win by at least a TD at home on Saturday.      

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Seattle Seahawks Preview | ASAwins NFL Win Totals

ASA’s NFC WEST WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

Seattle Seahawks – UNDER 7.5 Wins (+115)

The Seahawks finished last season with a record of 9-8 but they had a negative point differential (-38) and they were outgained by nearly 50 YPG.  Based on those stats alone, Seattle should have won only 7 games last season and that’s where we think they land in 2024 (7 or fewer wins).  They benefited from a positive turnover margin last season and only won 3 games by more than a TD in 2023 vs the 3 of the worst teams in the NFL, Carolina (2 wins last season), Arizona (4 wins last season), and the NY Giants (6 wins last season).  Six of Seattle’s wins last year came by 4 points or fewer or in OT and they were outgained in 5 of those tight 6 wins.  The offense finished 17th in points scored and 22nd in total yardage and we look for the Seahawks to regress on that side of the ball.  The offensive line is ranked 31st (out of 32 teams) by PFF heading into the season and QB Geno Smith took a big step back last season.  Smith had 10 fewer TD’s a year ago compared to 2022 and his completion percentage dropped by 5%.  They had very little running game last season (92 YPG rushing) and operating behind a poor Oline could be problematic for Smith and Company.  The defense allowed the 9th most points in 2023 along with the 3rd most yards gained by opponents despite finishing with a winning record.  Seattle has a new head coach, Mike McDonald, who has never been a head man at any level, so some growing pains are expected.  His coordinators are Ryan Grubb (OC) who has never coached in the NFL and Aden Durdy (DC) who has never been a DC in the NFL.  They faced the 11th most difficult schedule according to PFF and we look for this Seattle team to struggle in 2024.

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NFL free prediction Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens, Sept 18th

ASA breaks down this NFL showdown for you with insights on how and who to bet on.

#263/264 ASA PLAY ON Under 44.5 Points – Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

These 2 met last year and it was a 22-10 grinder won by the Fins.  We expect a similar situation on Sunday.  Both of these teams were slower paced the first week of the season with Miami ranking 31st in pace and Baltimore 27th after one game.  The Ravens ranked 20th in pace last year so that should stay the same throughout this season.  Miami was middle of the pack a year ago but their new head coach McDaniels loves to run the ball and we anticipate them in the bottom third in pace this season.  In their first game, the Dolphins put up just 20 points vs New England and 7 of those came on a defensive TD.  Defensively they looked really good holding the Pats to just 7 points on 271 total yards (5.0 YPP).  The Baltimore offense put up 24 points last week but gained only 274 total yards.  They held the Jets to 9 points and while NY had 380 total yards, almost 200 of those yards came when Baltimore was up 24-3 and the game was out of reach.  The Jets only averaged 4.8 YPP for the game.  In their meeting last year, the Fins and Ravens combined to average only 4.9 YPP and there were 16 punts in the game.  There were only 25 points scored by the offenses in that game with Miami returning a fumble 50 yards for a TD.  There were 27 possessions in the game and 20 of those last 6 plays or fewer.  The defenses dominated that game and we expect the same here.  Baltimore loves the run the ball (3rd in carries per game last year) and we look for the Dolphins to run a lot this year with a new scheme from McDaniels whose known as one of the top run game coordinators on the NFL.  Running eats clock and shortens the game.  These 2 have faced off 6 times since 2014 and only one of those games topped 44 points.  The projected score on this game is Baltimore 24, Miami 21 and we don’t expect either team to reach their number.  Under is the play.