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NFL Player Props – Nov 20th

ASA’s NFL player props for Sunday November 20th

Darnell Mooney Over 44.5 Rec Yards (-114)

Chicago has turned their offense around thanks to the rushing ability of Justin Fields. This has helped Mooney see more single coverage, allowing him to surpass his yardage total the previous seven weeks. With the Falcons ranking dead last in passing yards allowed per game, Mooney will have ample opportunity to once again pay dividends. 

Patrick Mahomes Over 292.5 Pass Yards (-115)

Mahomes leads the league in passing yards in 2022, currently riding a four game heater where he’s averaging 384 yards per game. Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster will be missing but Kadarius Toney is a nice addition to provide Mahomes more game breaking ability. Until we see anything different, expect Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes to continue scorching NFL defenses. 

Tyler Higbee Over 42.5 Rec Yards (-130)

Cooper Kupp is an immeasurable loss for the Rams (ankle), yet the show must go on with Matthew Stafford back from injury. Stafford has lacked chemistry with Allen Robinson in their first year together, leaving Tyler Higbee one of the few options in this offense. With an increase in targets expected, the Rams tight end will be called upon to produce in the passing game. Higbee has a good chance to lead the Rams in yards as he did last week in Cupp’s absence. 

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Liberty vs Virginia Tech prediction – By ASA

#338 ASA PLAY ON Liberty -9.5 over Virginia Tech, Saturday at 12 PM ET

Liberty is off a bad loss last week, just their 2nd loss of the season, @ UConn. The Flames lost that game 36-33 but outgained the Huskies by 156 yards. The situational spot was terrible for Liberty so we’re not surprised they weren’t at the top of their game. They had beaten Arkansas on the road a week earlier and had this huge home game vs a Power 5 team on deck. On top of that, UConn was playing for bowl eligibility in their final home game of the season and with the win the Huskies will play in the postseason for the first time since 2015. The “want to” in that game was heavily in favor of Connecticut. Not the case here with Liberty playing their final home game vs a name opponent. Va Tech has one of their worst teams in recent history with a 2-8 record. They are on the road here with absolutely nothing to play for and a home game on deck vs their arch rival Virginia. The Hokies were rolled 24-7 @ Duke last week getting outgained by 150 yards and have now lost 7 straight games. They’ve been outgained by over 1,100 yards in those 7 games and we have a feeling this team playing a meaningless non-conference game this late in the season may have tanked it. VT is 0-5 SU on the road this season (1-4 ATS) losing those games by an average of 2 TD’s. Their offense ranks outside the top 100 in total offense, rushing offense, and scoring offense. They’re facing a Liberty defense that ranks 30th nationally and has held a few potent offenses in check including allowing 19 points to Arkansas and 14 points to BYU. We’ll lay it with the much more motivated team playing one of the big boys in their own state.

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NBA MVP Winners and Losers – Nov 18th

ASA NBA Future MVP wagers as of Nov 18th.

If you are a bettor that likes to invest in NBA futures here are a couple wagers to consider for league MVP. We are sticking with a pair of our preseason predictions but have added another based on early season results.

Giannis Antetokounmpo +$250

Before the season started, we predicted Giannis Antetokounmpo as the NBA league MVP at +$250. Giannis is putting up 29.9PPG, 11.8RPG, 5.5APG with a PER rating of 29.14. In order he ranks 8th, 2nd, 29th and 6th in those four key categories. Milwaukee holds the 2nd best record in the Eastern Conference at 11-3. The Greek Freak is quietly putting up numbers similar to his 2019 and 2020 season when he won back-to-back MVP’s.

Ja Morant +$1400

We also like a long shot early on with Ja Morant who is now listed at +1400. We still like Morant who is 9th in scoring at 29.3PPG while also averaging 6.8-Assists Per Game (14th) and 6.2-Rebounds Per Game (60th) with a PER of 26.19 (10th). Memphis has dealt with a number of key injuries early on but have still managed a 9-6 record. For Morant to win though he will have to improve on his assists per game and Memphis will need to finish as one of the top teams in the West.

Jayson Tatum $+550

New to the table is Jason Tatum who has led the Celtics to a 12-3 record and the best team +/- in the league at +7.1PPG. We won’t be surprised if Boston finishes first in the East again and if that’s the case, Tatum will be high on the voter’s radar. Tatum has the 7th best PER at 27.50, is 5th in scoring at 31.1PPG, is grabbing 7.4 Boards Per Game (40th) and is dishing out 4.1APG which ranks 50th. What makes Tatum as an attractive option right now is the fact that his team is deep and defenses can’t key on him. Boston spaces the floor with shooters at every position and they make shots at a 48.8% which is 3rd in the NBA. That means additional assist per game for Tatum even if he isn’t scoring as much.

HONORABLE MENTION – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – SGA won’t win MVP this season because he’s on a losing team in the Thunder but he’s put up incredible numbers to start the season and is worth mentioning. Gilgeous-Alexander is scoring 32.3PPG, grabbing 4.5RPG and dishing out 5.9APG. His PER rating is 30.10 which is 3rd best in the NBA.

Here is our elimination list or players I would avoid investing in: #1 on the list is Zion Williamson. Who in their right mind would invest in this “china doll” who can’t stay healthy? Yes, he can be a stat-sheet stuffer but there is no chance he wins MVP playing limited games this season. #2 Nikola Jokic. Jokic has won it the past two seasons which and it’s unlikely we would see a three-year run from the media. He also has Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back from injury and both cut into his scoring numbers.

Top 25 Current MVP odds

NBA 2023 MVP WINNER ODDS
  
PlayerOdds
Luka Doncic250
Giannis Antetokounmpo260
Jayson Tatum550
Stephen Curry1100
Joel Embiid1200
Ja Morant1400
Donovan Mitchell2000
Kevin Durant2200
Nikola Jokic3000
Devin Booker4000
Trae Young5000
Damian Lillard5000
Zion Williamson5000
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander7000
Pascal Siakam7000
DeMar DeRozan10000
Jimmy Butler15000
James Harden15000
Paul George20000
Jaylen Brown25000
Lauri Markkanen25000
De’Aaron Fox25000
LeBron James25000

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NBA Player Prop Nov 17th

ASA Player Prop OVER 21.5 POINTS – Keldon Johnson, San Antonio Spurs

The Over/Under on this game itself is 236 which tells us it’s going to be a high scoring game. These are two of the fastest paced teams in the NBA, and two of the worst when it comes to defensive efficiency. The Spurs are 29th in the league allowing 1.169-points per possession, the Kings rank 27th giving up 1.147PPP. Johnson is averaging 22.71PPG on the season and has a pair of big game recently against a comparative team to the Spurs in the Denver Nuggets. Sacramento allows the 6th most points to shooting forwards, Denver is 8th in that defensive category. Our models are projecting 25.25 points tonight for Johnson.

ASA ON INSANE START TO NBA SEASON ON PLAYER PROPS! 24-7 HOT STREAK. GET BETS NIGHTLY FOR $9

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NBA free bet Nov 16th

NBA Free Bet – Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks prediction

ASA play on: Houston Rockets +6.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40PM ET

*No Luka Doncic for Dallas tonight hence the big line move.* After winning with our play on the Clippers last night against the Mavs we will come right back with a NBA free bet against Dallas tonight. The Mavs are 6-7-1 AST their last 14 when playing without rest and their +/- in those games is just +1.6PPG which clearly isn’t enough for a cover tonight. Dallas is off to a 8-5 SU start to the season with a 7-1 record at home. The Mavs +7.1PPG average margin of victory at home though is very misleading as they have a 41-point win over the Grizzlies. If we remove that one blowout their average +/- at home is just 2.1PPG. In their last five home games they have won by a combined 13-points. The Rockets have the 4th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -9.4PPG but they’ve also faced a brutal road schedule, with 8 of ten opponents having an above .500 record. Houston has covered 7 of the last ten meetings in Dallas and get another ATS ‘W’ here. Good luck with this NBA wager Wednesday night.