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NFL free bet today | Falcons vs Patriots | Nov 2 2025

#455 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons +5.5 over New England Patriots, Sunday a 1 PM ET

The Falcons are in desperation mode after losing back to back games and dropping to 3-4.  Last week they were embarrassed by Miami which gives us some extra line value here.  The look ahead line was +3 and now they are getting 5.5 points.  Atlanta was without QB Penix and top WR London last week and they are both back for this game.  Despite their 3-4 record, the Birds have been favored in 4 of their last 5 games getting points only from Buffalo during that stretch (+4 vs Bills).  Now they are getting nearly a TD vs a New England team that has a solid record but has played, by far, the weakest schedule in the NFL.  5 of their 6 wins have come against the Browns, Titans, Saints, Dolphins, and Panthers.  Those 5 teams have a combined 10-31.  The one solid win was 23-20 vs Buffalo (Atlanta also beat Buffalo 24-14) in a game the Pats were outgained but benefited from 3 Bills.  New England is just 2-2 at home this year with losses to the Raiders and Steelers.  They were just 2.5 point favorites vs Las Vegas and they were home dog vs Pittsburgh.  Now laying 5.5 vs a decent Atlanta team?  Despite the worse record and playing the much more difficult schedule, the Falcons have comparable YPG (Atlanta +68 YPG & NE +58 YPG) and YPP differential numbers (both +0.5 YPP margins).  The Falcons have the better D (#2 in the NFL in total D and #1 pass defense) and should be able to slow down Pats QB Maye in this game.  Atlanta will be out to prove a point after a horrible performance last week and we look for a close game.  Take the points.   

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