ASA PLAY ON #475/476 UNDER 43.5 Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday 8:20pm ET
Our model is projecting 40.25 points being scored in this game and we couldn’t agree more with our computers for this NFL free pick. The Steelers offense is near the bottom of every key category including 31st in totally YPG, 29th in yards per play, 31st in rushing YPG, 27th in rushing yards per attempt and 26th in scoring at 16.5PPG. Obviously, their scoring numbers are even exaggerated considering they had 2 defensive scores last week. Take away those 2 defensive TD’s and this offense is averaging 9.5PPG. Las Vegas played a similar team to Pittsburgh in the opener against Denver and they combined for 33 total points. Last week against a highly motivated Bills team they lost 10-38 with Buffalo getting a garbage TD with 5 minutes left or that game stays Under this number. Las Vegas struggled offensively in that game with 13 first downs, 55-rushing yards and 185-passsing yards. In fact, the Raiders offense is just as bad as Pittsburgh’s. they rank 30th in total YPG, 30th in rushing, 31st in yards per rush, 21st in passing yards and are last in the league in scoring at 13.5PPG. Both defenses are better than their numbers to date as both allow over 5.5 yards per play and Over 27PPG but today each team will be facing low level offenses so expect much better showings by each. We like this game Under 43.5 as today’s NFL free pick.
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