Tag: nba picks today

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NBA free bet | T’Wolves vs Suns | Nov 21

ASAwins free play on Phoenix Suns +3.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 9pm ET

I’m not so sure the T’Wolves should be favored on this court against the Suns.When you compare efficiency differentials the Suns are +5.3, the Wolves are +6.5 but Phoenix has faced a tougher schedule. On that note, both teams are 8-2 SU in their last ten games. In the Wolves 8 wins in that 10-game stretch – not one is against a team with a winning record. Phoenix hasn’t faced a tough schedule either but they do have a win over the Spurs in their last 10 and are coming off a win in Portland most recently. The Suns have an edge with their 7th best 3PT% going up against a T’Wolves defense that is 14th in defending the 3PT line. We also like the Suns advantage on the offense glass with the 9th best rebound % compared to the Timberwolves 15th ranked REB%. Phoenix is 6-2 on their home court with the 5th best scoring differential of +13.3ppg. Minnesota is 3-3 ATS as a road chalk this season. Take the home dog here.

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NBA free pick today | Suns vs Blazers | Feb 1 2025

ASA NBA free pick play on Portland Trailblazers +4 vs. Phoenix Suns – 10PM ET

The Blazers are playing extremely well right now with a 6-1 SU record in their last seven games and the loss was a competitive game at home against the Thunder.

Trailblazer bettors have been rewarded with 7 straight cashes against the spread. In this current 7-game stretch the Blazers have the best Net Rating in the NBA at +12.1.

Phoenix is coming off a big win last night against Golden State and the Suns haven’t been a good bet when playing without rest with a 2-5-1 ATS record this season. They’ve lost those ‘unrested’ games by an average of -5.5ppg. Looking at the Suns last 7 games we see they have a Net Rating of +4.3, 16th Offensively, 11th Defensively.

Portland has owned the glass in their last 7 games with a Rebound % of 53.1 which is 2nd best in the league. Phoenix ranks 12th in REB% over their last 7 games at 50.5.

Portland has been a solid home dog this season with a 13-8 ATS record. It won’t be a surprise if the Blazers win this game outright.  NBA free pick today.

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Free NBA Bet | Player Prop bet | Friday, January 31st 2025

Free NBA play OVER 24.5 POINTS+REBOUNDS+ASSISTS – Immanuel Quickley – Toronto Raptors

Quickley gets a very favorable match up tonight against the Bulls who are a dumpster fire right now and don’t defend well. The Bulls are 23rd in the NBA in DEFF allowing 1.161PPP on the season and have the 25th worst EFG% defense over their last ten games. They give up the 7th most points to PG’s at 24.3ppg, the 3rd most assists and the most rebounds per game. Quickley has missed most of the season and returned to action on January 1st. Since then, he has totaled more than 24.5 P+R+A in 4 of six games and is average 26.17 in that 6-game stretch.

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NBA free bet Heat vs Trailblazers | Jan 11th 2025

ASA’s NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +3.5 vs. Miami Heat, 10PM ET

I may regret backing the Blazers here as I typically don’t like betting teams in their first home game off an extended road trip but there are enough other positives to back Portland here.

Let’s face it, not all NBA players are 100% motivated on a nightly basis, which can make games difficult to predict. I’m betting the Blazers will be ready for this Heat team after losing to them by 60-points in late March a year ago. That is not a typo…60-point beat down by the Heat in Miami.

The Heat are without suspended Jimmy Butler and 2-3 SU their last five games. They are coming off a pair of road wins against the Warriors and Jazz, but the Heat have struggled as a road favorite this season going 1-6 ATS.

On that note, the Blazers have made backers money as a home underdog with a 9-5 ATS record.

Miami isn’t a great shooting team so we see them exploiting a bad Blazer FG% defense to win this game by margin.

Lastly, there was an immediate influx of money on the Heat, yet the line didn’t move as it normally would have in the Miami’s favor. We will make a light bet on the Blazers and the points tonight.

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NBA free bet | Atlanta Hawks vs Utah Jazz Prediction | 1-7-2025

ASA NBA free bet on OVER 238.5 Atlanta Hawks at Utah Jazz, 9PM ET

The Jazz are coming off a 3-game road trip on the East coast with a pair of wins over the Heat and Magic in the most recent games.

Atlanta is on a 3-game slide on a West coast trip with the losses coming at Denver, Lakers and Clippers. In two of those game the Hawks defense allowed 131 and 139 points. They have given up 128 or more points in 5 of their last nine games.

While we are on the subject of defense, or lack of, the Jazz have the worst defense in the NBA in terms of Efficiency rating as they allow 1.204-points per possession. Atlanta allows 1.146PPP which ranks 17th.

We should get a very fast paced game here with a Hawks team that is 3rd in the league in possession per game, the Jazz are 14th.

Both defenses are 20th or worse in FG%, 3PT% and FG attempts. Combined these two teams have favored the Over with a 42-17-1 Over record this season. This number is significantly lower than our model projects. Bet Over.

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