Tag: bowl best bets

#237/238 ASA FREE BOWL BET: ON Under 44.5 Points – Virginia vs Missouri, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET @ Jacksonville, FL

Two high level defensive teams facing off in Jacksonville on Saturday night should lead to a low scoring game.  Missouri’s defense ranked in the top 17 nationally in total D, YPP allowed, rushing D, and passing D while allowing just 19 PPG.  They held 4 of their final 6 opponents to 17 points or less and allowed 20+ points in just 4 of their 12 games.  On offense, the Tigers will be without starting QB Pribula who is on the transfer portal, making freshman Zollers the starter for this game.  Zollers started 3 games this season and Mizzou was held to 17 or less in 2 of those games.  The one game they topped 17 was vs Mississippi State whose defense ranked outside the top 100.  The Tigers run the ball at one of the highest rates in CFB (44 carries per game which is 11^th nationally) and they weren’t comfortable throwing much with Zollers under center as he averaged only 20 pass attempts per game in his 3 starts.  They will also be very thin in WR due to injuries and opt outs so expect this offense to stick to the ground game which eats clock.  The Tigers will struggle to find success on the ground facing an underrated UVA defense that allowed only 110 YPG rushing this year on 3.3 YPC (both top 25 numbers).  The Cav defense allowed only 20 PPG this season and held 5 of their final 6 opponents to 21 points or less.  Virginia is a bit more balanced on offense but they do run the ball a lot as well (39^th in rush attempts per game).  The Missouri defense is stout vs the run (103 YPG allowed) but they also have been fantastic vs the pass ranking 11^th in YPG passing allowed, 15^th in opponent completion percentage, and 16^th in yards per pass attempt allowed.  We like this one to stay Under the total.