Tag: best free picks

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Free Bet | New Mexico vs San Diego State | Feb 28, 2026

#648 ASA FREE BET New Mexico -1.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 2 PM ET

We’re getting the Lobos at home off a road loss @ Nevada facing the Aztecs on the road off a huge home win over Utah State which pushed them into a tie for 1st place in the Mountain West.  We like this situation for New Mexico in the Pit on Saturday afternoon.  The Lobos lost on Tuesday night while SDSU played on Wednesday giving the host an extra day.  The Pit is one of the tougher places to play and the Lobos are 13-2 here this year and 54-6 since the start of the 2022 season.  A win here would put New Mexico and SDSU in a tie for 2nd place (possibly 1st place if Utah State loses) with 13-5 records.  The Aztecs have 4 losses in conference play and 3 of those came on the road.  When these 2 met in San Diego the Aztecs squeaked out a 4 point win and 49% from the field and 41% from 3 point land.  On the road their offensive numbers drop to 73 PPG (81 PPG at home) on just 1.04 PPP.  It looks like the Aztecs might also be without a few rotational players (Newman & Oden) who are both questionable for this game.  New Mexico is set to host SDSU for possibly the last time in the Pit (Aztecs leaving the MWC after this season) where they are 32-13 lifetime vs the Aztecs.  Let’s lay the small number.    FREE BET today on New Mexico vs San Diego State.

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NBA Free Bet | Dec 19th 2025

ASA NBA Free bet – play on Cleveland Cavaliers -7 vs Chicago Bulls, 7:40pm ET

If you are a value numbers bettor then this play is for you. These same two teams just met on Wednesday in Chicago with the Cavs favored by -5.5 points. The Bulls won that game 127-111 but the line on the game is what has our attention, not the outcome. If Cleveland was favored by -5.5 in Chicago that means they should be at least -13 on their home court. In fact, the Cavs were just favored by -12.5 at home against the Hornets which is a fair comparison. Granted, the Cavaliers aren’t playing their best basketball right now but this team won 64 games a year ago with the best record in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs have a season long eDIFF (efficiency differential) of +2.7 which ranks them 11th best in the NBA. Cleveland is 45-17 SU their last 52 home games with an average MOV of +8.3ppg. Chicago is a below .500 team at 11-15 SU on the season with an eDIFF of minus -5 which is 23rd overall in the NBA. The Bulls are a slightly better than average shooting team at 47.1% on the season but had an uncharacteristically great night against the Cavs on Wednesday, hitting 56% from the field. Chicago is 4—9 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of -4.3ppg. The Cavs had won 5 in a row in this series prior to Wednesday and we expect them to get back on track tonight with a revenge win by double-digits.

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College Football Free Bet | Ohio State vs Wisconsin | Oct 18

#399 ASA FREE PLAY ON Ohio State -25 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET

Will Badgers score in this game?  They were shutout 37-0 at home vs Iowa last week and OSU’s defense is a few notches better than the Hawkeyes. 

OSU is allowing just 8 PPG on the season and teams are averaging 0.85 points per drive, both #1 in the country.  Wisconsin’s offense has been brutal to say the least. 

They are down to their 3rd string QB (transfer from Southern Illinois) and they can’t run the ball (116th nationally in YPG rushing).  That makes it very tough to score and they’ve shown that can’t. 

This team is averaging less than 7 PPG in Big 10 play and over their last 4 games they’ve had 45 offensive possessions and scored a grand total of 3 offensive TD’s.  Just terrible. 

And now they face the best defense they’ve seen this year.  A defense that held Washington to 6 points, Texas to 7 points, and Minnesota to 3 points. 

Offensively OSU isn’t great this year but they are still very good.  They still rank 19th in the country in YPP and 23rd in scoring putting up 37 PPG.  They shouldn’t need to do much on offense here as Wisconsin will do next to nothing on their offensive side of the ball. 

OSU has scored at least in the mid 30’s in 4 of their 6 games and that should easily get it done here vs a Wisconsin defense that started out well, but has faded. 

The Badgers have allowed 38, 27, 24, and 37 points over their last 4 games and 3 of those offenses rank 50th or worse (total offense) including Iowa who ranks 115th yet put up 37 points last week. 

The Badgers put a lot of emotional effort into last week’s game vs arch rival Iowa and still got smoked.  Nothing left in the tank here and OSU rolls big.

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Colts vs Titans Prediction | Oct 13 2024

ASA FREE PLAY ON Over 43 Points – Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 PM ET

Indy’s defense is a wreck right now.  They’ve allowed 61 points over their last 2 weeks and rank dead last in total defense allowing 420 YPG.  They’ve had 2 games where they held their opponents under 24 points and that was vs Green Bay when the Packers ran the ball 55 times with back up QB Willis getting his first start and vs Chicago who ranks 29th in YPP offense.  Even in those games GB tallied 383 yards and Chicago 395 yards so they both had opportunities to put up more points. 

Indy ranks dead last in the NFL allowing opponents to average 38 yards per drive.  The Titans have some offensive confidence coming into this game after putting up 31 points last week (their season high) vs Miami and QB Levis, who was banged up in the game, looks like he’ll be fine here. 

Tennessee’s defense is highly rated, however they’ve faced 4 offenses (Miami, NYJ, and Chicago) who rank in the bottom 7 in YPP.  The one decent offense they’ve faced was Green Bay who put up 30 points on them. 

Indy’s offense averages 6.2 YPP (5th in the NFL) and 24 PPG.  We would expect the Colts to have success here offensively.  Both QB’s should have time to operate in the pocket as these defenses rank 29th and 30th in pressure rate. 

These 2 AFC South rivals have met 10 times since the start of the 2019 season and they’ve averaged 48 total points in those games.  We like the Over on Sunday as our free NFL bet. 

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Kansas State vs Colorado Prediction | October 12

ASA free bet on Kansas State -3.5 at Colorado, 10:15PM ET

Don’t be fooled by the Buffalos two most recent wins over vastly overrated teams in Baylor and UCF.

Colorado’s defense will be in trouble here against a K-State offense that averages 432YPG (43rd) and 6.9 yards per play (27th) and rushes it for 252YPG (8th) at a 6.9 yards per rush (2nd). The Buffs allow nearly 380YPG defensively overall, 156 rushing YPG (86th) at a 4.0 yards per carry average.

CU will be one dimensional here offensively as they can’t or won’t run the football. The Buffs rank 120th or worst in rushing YPG, rushing attempts p/game and Yards p/rush. Clearly the goal in Boulder is to throw it every down with QB Shedeur Sanders who is one of the better quarterbacks in the country but will he have enough opportunities?

The Wildcats will dominate the time of possession with their ground game.

K-State has historically been very good in conference play  with a 43-29-4 ATS record dating back to 2016. More recently, they are 24-13-3 ATS in Big12 action since 2020.  

We like Kansas State vs Colorado in this prediction.

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