Category: Freepicks

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NBA Player Props 77-45 YTD

ASA has produced a 77-45 record on NBA Players Props this season. Below are 2 bets for Saturday, Jan 21st

ASA Player Prop OVER 10.5 REBOUNDS Deandre Ayton – Phoenix Suns

The Pacers are not a good rebounding team to start with as they rank 25th and 26th in offensive and defensive rebounds per game. Indiana is coming off a game last night in Denver and fatigue will be a factor. Ayton is one of the best rebounders in the league at 9.85 per game and 10.63 in his last ten games. He has grabbed 11 or more boards in 5 of the last six games he’s played in.

ASA Player Prop OVER 17.5 POINTS – Mikal Bridges – Phoenix Suns

We were on Bridges Over for points the other night against the Nets and will come back with another wager on him here. Bridges has taken up some of the scoring burden with Chris Paul and Booker sidelined. He is averaging 17.7PPG in his last ten games and has scored 21+ in 4 of the last five. Indiana doesn’t defend SG’s well either, allowing 25.3PPG which is 3rd worst in the NBA.

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College Basketball free bet – Saturday, Jan 21st

#768 ASA PLAY ON West Virginia -1 over Texas, Saturday at 5 PM ET

We’ve faded Texas in each of their last 2 games with winning results.  This team is vastly overrated in our opinion and there is a reason the unranked West Virginia Mountaineers are favored over the Horns who currently preside in the top 10 in the AP rankings.  The Longhorns lost by 11 @ Iowa State earlier this week so they will be playing their 2nd straight road game.  The game prior to that, Texas had to come from 9 points down at half, at home vs Texas Tech to win by 2 points.  They are 4-2 in conference play and 3 of their 4 wins have come by 4 points or fewer.  The Horns simply aren’t playing that well right now despite their top 10 ranking.  Prior to their double digit loss to ISU earlier this week, they trailed Texas Tech by 9 at half and trailed TCU by 18, both at home before coming back to win tight games.  Texas is averaging 80 PPG this season but in their road games they are only putting up 64 PPG on just 40% shooting.  WVU is undervalued because they are 1-5 in Big 12 play but 4 of their 5 losses have come by 7 points or less or in OT.  The Mountaineers have some momentum after beating a very good TCU team by 9 on Wednesday, their season long offensive and defensive metrics are very comparable to Texas, and they are very well coach with Bob Huggins as the helm.  The Horns are 1-6 ATS their last 7 road games and we expect WVU to pick up a win and cover at home on Saturday. 

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NBA Player Prop Bets – January 19th

NBA Player Prop bets for Detroit Pistons vs Chicago Bulls Day Game – Thursday, Jan 19th

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 8.5 POINTS – Ayo Dosunmu – Chicago Bulls

The Detroit Pistons give up the 5th most points to PG’s this season at 24.8PPG. Dosunmu has averaged 10.1PPG in his last ten games and 9.52PPG on the season. In a recent meeting with the Pistons he managed 11 points and cashed the Over. The Total on this game is 236 which means it’s going to be higher scoring. Granted DeRozan is back in the lineup today and he will get his fair share of field goal attempts but Dosunmu should get to his average or score 10+ in this one.

ASA NBA player prop OVER 11.5 REBOUNDS – Nikola Vucevic – Chicago Bulls

We expect a big rebounding performance here from Vucevic as he faces a Pistons teams that is 25th in defensive rebounding, 22nd in offensive rebounding. Detroit also allows the 4th most rebounds to Centers this season at 16.2 per game. Vucevic has averaged 13 rebounds per game his last ten games and has grabbed more that 11.5 in 7 of his last nine games.

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NBA Player Prop Bets – January 18th 2023

ASA NBA PLAYER PROP OVER 18.5 POINTS – Josh Giddey – Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder are on an impressive streak with road wins over the 76ers, Bulls and Nets. A big reason why has been the play of Giddey who has cored 20, 25 and 28-points in those three contests. That’s significant considering those three teams rank 1st, 2nd and 4th in the least amount of points scored per game against point guards. Indiana allows 22.9PPG to PG’s this season, which is roughly league average. Overall, the Pacers own the 10th worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA allowing 1.146-points per possession. Easy Over call for Giddey.

ASA NBA PLAYER PROP OVER 24.5 POINTS – De’Aaron Fox – Sacramento Kings

We like the value here with a number that’s been set too low. These same two teams met on Jan 7th and the O/U for points scored by Fox was 26.5. We bet that Over and he finished with 34-points. In three games against the Lakers this season he has scored 37, 22 and 34 points. The Lakers are the 2nd worst team in the league when it comes to points allowed to point guards as they give up 26.9PPG. In a high possession game (the total is 247) he should get plenty of opportunities to score.

ASA NBA PLAYER PROP OVER 31.5 POINTS+ASSISTS – De’Aaron Fox – Sacramento Kings

We like the value here with a number that’s been set too low. These same two teams met on Jan 7th and the O/U for points+assists by Fox was 33.5. He finished with 43 in that most recent game. The Lakers are the 2nd worst team in the league when it comes to points allowed to point guards as they give up 26.9PPG. They allow the 9th most assists to PG’s at 8.4APG. In a high possession game (the total is 247) he should get plenty of opportunities to score and dish out assists here.

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NBA Free bet – Monday, Jan 16th

ASA OVER 1.5 3-POINTERS MADE – Russell Westbrook LA Lakers

This looks like a gift to us as the Rockets are one of the worst teams in the league defending the 3-point line as they allow 36.8% which is 26th in the NBA. Granted, Westbrook isn’t known for his outside shooting but he has made 2 or more 3’s in 5 of his last six games. The Rockets allow the 2nd most 3-pointers made to PG’s this season at 3.4 per game. Russ will get 2 or more tonight.

ASA play on UNDER 224.5 Toronto Raptors @ NY Knicks, 3PM ET

These two teams have met twice this season with both games staying below the number with 220 and 219 total points being scored. The O/U numbers set by the oddsmakers on those two games were 216.5 so you can see for yourself the value in today’s number. Historically, if we look back at the last nine meetings the most combined points scored by these two teams is 225. All other meetings have been less than that. We are expecting both defenses to dominate in this game as the Raptors allow the 8th fewest points in the NBA, the Knicks allow the 7th fewest. Both teams are also slower paced so we know it won’t be a high possession game. The Raptors are the 4th slowest team in the NBA at 97.2 possessions per game, the Knicks are 8th slowest at 97.8 possessions per game. The Knicks are coming off a road game yesterday and their games average 218.7PPG when they play without rest. Unless both teams shoot well above their season averages, we can’t see this game going Over the Total.