Author: Lee Kostroski

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CFL Free Bet | BC Lions vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers | June 12 2025

ASAwins CFL play on UNDER 49.5 BC Lions at Winnipeg Blue Bombers, 8:30pm ET

We are betting UNDER in this game with our model projecting 44.7 total points as the O/U. BC has a game under their belt after 31-14 win over Edmonton last week. The Lions exploded for 28-points in the second half after putting up just 3-points at the break.

This week it’s going to be much tougher for the Lions and QB Rourke to move the ball and put up points against a Blue Bombers defense that allowed 20.3ppg in 2024, the lowest number in the CFL. Winnipeg gave up the fewest yards per game at 329.7 a year ago and are projected to be just as good on that side of the football in 2025.

The Blue Bombers will be without their starting QB Zac Collaros in the opener who is suspended for this game. Collaros led the CFL with 420 completions, 5,451 passing yards and 32 TD’s in 2024. That means the BB’s will lean on RB Oliveira, the league MOP in 2024, to carry the load offensively.

BC is solid defensively as they showed last week allowing just 14-points to Edmonton, who averaged 28ppg in 2024. The Lions allowed the 3rd fewest YPG last season and PPG at 24.4ppg.

In the three meetings last season these two teams produced 50-points, then 25 and 31. We like the trend of the two most recent meetings to continue and will be on the UNDER here!

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WNBA Free Bet | Sun vs Mystic | June 8th 2025

ASA WNBA play on Washington Mystics -7 vs. Connecticut Sun, 3pm ET

The Mystic have already beaten the Sun by 5-points in Connecticut, and we predict a much bigger margin this time around in Washington. The Mystic are getting healthy with the returns of Austin and Edwards, and with a couple days off after a loss to the Liberty, have had time to jell with the new additions. Shooting is going to be the biggest separator in this game as the Sun are 12th in team FG% at 41% overall and 12th in 3PT% at 28.8%. Making shots Sunday will be especially tough against this Mystics D that is 2nd in the WNBA in both FG% and 3PT% defense. Washington is average in terms of shooting themselves, but they face a Sun team that is last in FG% defense and 12th in 3PT% defense. The Mystic will enjoy a massive advantage on the board also with the 3rd best rebound percentage in the W compared to the Sun who rank 11th. Just 1 win separates these two teams, but the Sun are statistically far worse with a Net Rating of -19.6 compared to Washington at -5.2. We are very comfortable laying the 7-points in this one.

DON’T SETTLE FOR JUST A FREE PICK WHEN YOU CAN GET A BEST BET!

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2025 NBA Finals Betting Preview: Why the Oklahoma City Thunder Will Win in 5 Games (+230) Over the Indiana Pacers

OKCthundernba

ASA’s 2025 NBA Finals Betting Preview: Why the Oklahoma City Thunder Will Win in 5 Games (+230) Over the Indiana Pacers

As the 2025 NBA Finals tip off on June 5, the Oklahoma City Thunder face the Indiana Pacers in a matchup that pits the league’s most dominant team against a scrappy, high-octane underdog. The Thunder, who posted a historic 68-14 regular season, are heavy favorites to claim their first NBA championship since the franchise’s Seattle SuperSonics days in 1979. One intriguing betting opportunity stands out: the Thunder to win the series in five games at +230 odds. This article dives into the statistical case for OKC’s dominance, highlighting their regular-season performance, key metrics, and why they’re poised to dispatch the Pacers efficiently.

Thunder’s Regular-Season Dominance: A Statistical Powerhouse

The Oklahoma City Thunder were a juggernaut in the 2024-25 regular season, finishing with 68 wins, the seventh team in NBA history to reach that mark. Their dominance was particularly evident in their ability to win games decisively, with 54 of their victories coming by double digits—a testament to their ability to overwhelm opponents. Their average margin of victory (MOV) of +12.2 points per game set a historical standard, reflecting a team that not only wins but does so convincingly. This is a stark contrast to the Pacers, who managed a respectable 50-32 record but posted a modest +2.2 PPG MOV, suggesting closer games and less consistent dominance.

On the road, the Thunder were nearly unstoppable, going 36-11 straight-up (SU) with an average MOV of +7.9 PPG. This road prowess is critical in a 2-2-1-1-1 Finals format, where OKC will need to steal at least one game in Indianapolis. Their ability to maintain a high MOV away from home signals a team that doesn’t falter under pressure, a trait that bodes well for a short series.

Defensive and Offensive Efficiency: OKC’s Elite Two-Way Play

The Thunder’s success is anchored by their elite two-way play, ranking 1st in defensive efficiency (1.075 points allowed per possessions) and 3rd in offensive efficiency (1.204PPP) during the regular season. Their playoff defensive efficiency remained stellar at 1.062, showcasing their ability to clamp down on opponents even in playoff games. OKC’s defense is a turnover-forcing machine, averaging 18.0 turnovers forced per game in the playoffs, converting those into 23.8 points per game. This disruptive style, led by All-Defensive talents like Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, and Alex Caruso, plus rim protection from Chet Holmgren (2.0 blocks per game), makes OKC a nightmare for opposing offenses.

In contrast, the Pacers ranked 9th in offensive efficiency and a middling 13th in defensive efficiency during the regular season. While Indiana’s playoff offense has been electric—posting a 118.1 offensive efficiency rating, second only to the Cleveland Cavaliers—their defensive efficiency rating of 113.9 exposes vulnerabilities against a team like OKC, which thrives in chaos and transition. The Pacers’ fast-paced style (98.4 pace) plays into the Thunder’s hands, as OKC’s 100.6 pace and league-leading transition defense (allowing just 9.1 transition points per game) neutralize Indiana’s preferred track-meet tempo.

Head-to-Head Matchups: Thunder’s Regular-Season Sweep

The Thunder swept the Pacers in their two regular-season meetings. On December 26 in Indianapolis, OKC overcame a 15-point deficit to win 120-114, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dropping 45 points on 15-of-22 shooting. The March 29 rematch in Oklahoma City was a rout, with the Thunder cruising to a 132-111 victory, fueled by 17 three-pointers (47.2% from deep) and 58 points in the paint. These games highlighted OKC’s ability to exploit Indiana’s defensive weaknesses, particularly in transition and perimeter defense, where the Pacers allowed opponents to shoot 34% from three in the regular season compared to OKC’s league-leading 33% in the playoffs.

Key Matchups and X-Factors

The Finals hinge on the battle between Indiana’s high-powered offense, led by Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, and OKC’s suffocating defense. Haliburton struggled mightily against the Thunder in the regular season, scoring just 4 points in the first meeting and 18 in the second, with usage rates well below his 21.6% season average. OKC’s strategy of deploying Dort and Cason Wallace to shadow Haliburton disrupted his rhythm, forcing the ball out of his hands. With Indiana’s offense relying on Haliburton’s playmaking (2.2 assist-to-turnover ratio in the playoffs), OKC’s ability to limit him could cripple the Pacers’ attack.

On the other end, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the 2024-25 MVP, is a matchup nightmare. Averaging 32.7 PPG on 52/38/90 shooting splits in the regular season and 29.8 PPG in the playoffs, SGA’s ability to draw fouls (7.9 points per game at the free-throw line) exploits Indiana’s weakness in opponent free-throw rate (15th among playoff teams). Andrew Nembhard, tasked with guarding SGA, allowed 27 points on 11-of-18 shooting in their regular-season matchups, suggesting the Pacers lack an answer for OKC’s superstar.

The rebounding battle also favors OKC. Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein are double-digit rebound threats, while Indiana’s Myles Turner averages a modest 5.8 rebounds per game in the playoffs. The Thunder’s ability to control the glass and limit second-chance opportunities could further tilt the possession battle, where OKC led the league with a +435 turnover differential in the regular season.

Why Thunder in 5 (+230) Makes Sense

The +230 odds for the Thunder to win in five games reflect a series where OKC’s dominance is expected but not guaranteed to be a sweep. The Pacers’ potent offense and home-court resilience (they went 4-2 at home in the Eastern Conference playoffs) suggest they could steal one game, likely in Game 3 or 4 in Indianapolis

Betting Recommendation

The Thunder’s historic regular-season performance, elite two-way efficiency, and head-to-head success against the Pacers make them the clear favorites. Their ability to win big (54 double-digit victories, +12.2 MOV) and perform on the road (+7.9 MOV) supports a quick series. At +230, betting on OKC to win in five games offers value, balancing their dominance with the likelihood of Indiana stealing one game at home.

Pick: Thunder to Win NBA Finals in 5 Games (+230)

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NHL Free Bet | Panthers vs Leafs Game 7 | 2025 NHL Playoffs

ASA NHL play on Florida Panthers -130 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs, Game 7 7 – 7:30pm ET

The Panthers are 3-1 all-time in Game 7s, including 2-0 on the road, with notable victories against the Boston Bruins (2023) and Edmonton Oilers (2024 Stanley Cup Final). Toronto, conversely, is 12-15 in Game 7s, with a six-game losing streak in these scenarios, last winning in 2004 against Ottawa.

The experience of the Panthers who have 13 players on their roster from last season’s Game 7 win against Edmonton in the Stanley Cup. The Panthers hold a 60/40 edge in expected goals and they’ve outscored Toronto 20-16 in the series. Florida has won five straight playoff series and eight of nine, advancing to the Stanley Cup Final in each of the past two seasons.

Toronto hasn’t reached the third round in 23 years. Netminder Sergei Bobrovsky is 2-0 in Game 7s with a 1.88 GAA and .933 save percentage, including 23 saves in last season’s Cup-clinching win. Toronto’s Joseph Woll, while impressive with a Game 6 shutout, has less high-stakes experience.

We are on the Panthers with their Game 7 experience, led by Marchand, Verhaeghe, Tkachuk, and Bobrovsky, outweighs Toronto’s home advantage. Florida’s ability to dominate 5v5 play and their recent playoff pedigree make them the safer pick to advance to the Eastern Conference Final.

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Chicago Sky 2025 WNBA Season Prediction: Over 19.5 Wins Bet Is a Slam Dunk

ANGEL REESE

Chicago Sky 2025 WNBA Season Preview: Why the Over 19.5 Wins Bet Is a Slam Dunk – By ASA

The Chicago Sky are poised for a breakout 2025 WNBA season, and the betting line of Over 19.5 wins is looking like a play for savvy sports bettors. Coming off a 13-win campaign in 2024, the Sky have bolstered their roster with key veteran additions and are banking on significant growth from their young stars. With a foundation as the league’s second-best rebounding team last season and a revamped lineup featuring newcomers Kia Nurse, Courtney Vandersloot, and Rebecca Allen, Chicago is ready to soar past expectations. Here’s why the Sky are a safe bet to eclipse 19.5 wins in 2025.

Last Season’s Foundation: Rebounding Dominance and Room for Growth

In 2024, the Chicago Sky finished with a 13-27 record, but their underlying stats paint a picture of a team with untapped potential. Most notably, the Sky were the second-best rebounding team in the WNBA, trailing only the New York Liberty. They averaged 36.8 rebounds per game, including a league-leading 10.8 offensive rebounds per game. This dominance on the glass translated to second-chance points and control of the game’s tempo, a formula that often leads to wins when paired with improved offensive efficiency.

The Sky’s rebounding prowess was driven by rookies Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso, who emerged as a formidable frontcourt duo despite their inexperience. Reese, the No. 7 overall pick, averaged 13.6 points and 13.1 rebounds per game, earning WNBA All-Star honors and setting a league record for consecutive double-doubles. Cardoso, the No. 3 pick, battled injuries but still contributed 9.1 points and 7.9 rebounds per game in limited minutes. Both players showed flashes of brilliance but were held back by typical rookie inefficiencies, such as turnovers and inconsistent shooting (Reese shot 39.1% from the field, Cardoso 45.5%).

The Sky’s offense, however, was a weak point in 2024, ranking 10th in offensive rating (96.7) and struggling with perimeter shooting (31.9% from three, 11th in the league). Their defense was middle-of-the-pack, allowing 103.2 points per 100 possessions (7th). These areas of improvement are exactly where the Sky’s new additions and second-year growth come into play.

New Faces, New Strengths: Nurse, Vandersloot, and Allen

The Sky’s front office made strategic moves to address their weaknesses, adding three proven veterans to complement their young core. The projected 2025 roster includes Kia Nurse, Courtney Vandersloot, and Rebecca Allen, each bringing skills that directly address Chicago’s 2024 shortcomings.

Kia Nurse: A sharpshooting guard, Nurse is a career 34.8% three-point shooter who averaged 9.6 points per game with the Los Angeles Sparks in 2024. Her ability to stretch the floor will open up driving lanes for Reese and Cardoso, forcing defenses to respect the perimeter. Nurse’s veteran presence also adds stability to a backcourt that lacked consistent scoring last season.

Courtney Vandersloot: A Chicago Sky legend returns after a stint with the New York Liberty. Vandersloot, one of the WNBA’s premier point guards, averaged 6.4 points and 7.2 assists per game in 2024, with a career assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.8. Her playmaking will elevate the Sky’s offense, reducing the pressure on Reese and Cardoso to create their own shots. Vandersloot’s experience in high-pressure situations and familiarity with the Chicago fanbase make her a perfect fit.

Rebecca Allen: A defensive stalwart and versatile wing, Allen averaged 7.8 points and 3.8 rebounds with the Phoenix Mercury in 2024, shooting 34.7% from three. Her ability to guard multiple positions and knock down open shots adds flexibility to the Sky’s lineup. Allen’s defensive tenacity will help improve Chicago’s middling defensive rating, while her shooting complements Nurse’s outside threat.

These additions transform the Sky into a well-rounded team with improved spacing, playmaking, and defensive versatility—key ingredients for a significant win-total jump.

Second-Year Surge: Reese and Cardoso Ready to Shine

The Sky’s rebounding dominance in 2024 was driven by rookies Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso, and their second-year improvements could be the catalyst for a playoff push. Young players typically make their biggest leaps between their first and second seasons, and both Reese and Cardoso have the tools to become All-WNBA-caliber talents.

Angel Reese: Already a rebounding machine, Reese’s 13.1 rebounds per game ranked second in the WNBA in 2024. Her relentless motor and knack for offensive rebounds (5.1 per game, league-leading) gave the Sky extra possessions, but her offensive game has room to grow. Improving her field-goal percentage (39.1%) and developing a midrange jumper could push her scoring closer to 16-18 points per game. With Vandersloot feeding her easy looks, Reese’s efficiency should climb, making her an even bigger threat.

Kamilla Cardoso: Limited by injuries in 2024, Cardoso still showed why she was a top draft pick. Her 7.9 rebounds per game and 1.4 blocks in just 26.2 minutes highlight her potential as a two-way force. Cardoso’s 45.5% field-goal percentage is solid, but refining her post moves and staying healthy could see her average a double-double in 2025. Her rim protection will also benefit from Allen’s perimeter defense, creating a stingier Sky defense.

Why Over 19.5 Wins Is the Play

The Sky’s 13 wins in 2024 were weighed down by a rookie-heavy roster, offensive inefficiencies, and injuries. With Nurse, Vandersloot, and Allen addressing key weaknesses and Reese and Cardoso poised for second-year leaps, Chicago is built to contend for a playoff spot in 2025. The Sky’s rebounding advantage—already elite at 36.8 rebounds per game—will be amplified by better floor spacing and playmaking, leading to more possessions and higher-scoring outputs.

A conservative estimate for the Sky’s improvement would add 5-7 wins from roster upgrades, 3-4 wins from Reese and Cardoso’s development, and 1-3 wins from better health, chemistry and a new coach. That puts them in the 21-24 win range. Let’s not forget the WNBA schedule is longer this season at 44-games instead of 40. This Sky roster has the talent to achieve a .500 record or better.

Final Prediction

The Chicago Sky are flying under the radar, but their mix of veteran savvy, young talent, and rebounding dominance makes them a dangerous team in 2025. Bet the Over 19.5 and you can even consider a -123 bet to make the Playoffs.

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