NBA Free pick | Rockets vs Thunder | Oct 21 2025

ASAwins NBA Free play on UNDER 227.5 Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40pm ET

The public has jumped on the OVER in this game but the handle is on UNDER. We like what the betting market is saying about this game and will put our money on a low scoring affair. Obviously that is not the only reason we like this game UNDER as our math model is projecting 224.3 total points. The Thunder were the best team in the NBA defensively during the regular season a year ago allowing just 1.075 points per possession. The Rockets were 4th best in that stat category allowing 1.107PPP. OKC was 6th in pace of play, but the Rockers were 17th. The Thunder were one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA a year ago, the Rockets were 13th. Houston made a huge trade in the offseason and brought in Kevin Durant but had to give up Jalen Green in the deal. The Rockets will be without Fred VanVleet for the season who was 3rd in scoring at 14.1ppg and led the team in assists. This team is going to be a match up nightmare for teams as they start 6’7 Amen Thompson then have four players all over 6’11. OKC is the defending Champ and odds on favorite to win it all again. They will however be without second leading scorer Jalen Williams for this game and could be missing Alex Caruso who was banged up in the preseason. We expect both offenses to be slightly behind the defenses to start the season and predict a game below 224.