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MLB Free bet – ASA – June 23rd

ASA FREE PLAY ON Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Kansas City Royals, Friday at 6:40 PM ET – We lost with this play as a premium play yesterday but will come right back with it here in this spot on Friday. The Royals, despite yesterday’s upset win, are having a very rough season and have lost 54 of 75 games this season and that includes having lost 32 of 41 games against teams with a winning record!  Here they are matched up with one of the best teams in MLB and the Rays have been particularly tough at home where they have won 32 of 41 games.  So here you have a 79% play on situation versus a 79% play against situation. Nice odds but that is based on wins and losses.  What about wins and losses by 2+ runs?  Well, the key here is that Tampa Bay has seen 75% of their wins (39 of 52) come by at least a 2-run margin.  The Royals have seen 83% of their losses (45 of 54) come by at least at 2-run margin.  Look for a big blowout here as this is a mismatch and that is before even talking about the pitchers.  This is a case of hot versus not and now, how about those pitchers?  The Rays are expected to start Eflin here and he is 8-3 with a 3.26 ERA this season. The Royals have Zack Greinke likely to get the start and he is 1-7 with a 4.81 ERA this season and known for struggling on the road more than at home in recent seasons. We think we’re getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a -125 price with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here!