Friday Game of the Day: Missouri @ Nevada (-7, 61)

Missouri: For real?

A lot of people expected Missouri to take a giant step back after losing a number of key players from last year’s 10-4 team. They lost their schools all-time leading passer, their All-American WR, and Mackey Award winning TE. They also lost seven All-Big 12 players of the defensive side of the ball.

Despite all of the personnel losses, Missouri is off to a 3-0 start. Granted, they have played a fairly easy schedule with wins vs. Illinois, Bowling Green and Furman.

We will get a good idea if the Tigers are legit in their first road game @Nevada in the Friday night spotlight.

Desperation time:

Nevada had very high hopes entering the season. They returned a bevy of starters from a year ago and had, what looked like, a pretty favorable schedule. But they are 0-2 to start the season, losing two road games to Notre Dame and Colorado State.

They now get Missouri at home in a revenge situation. The Wolf Pack allowed 69 points and 651 total yards in a loss @Missouri last year and were thoroughly embarrassed. The Tigers could be vulnerable in their first road test of the season and it’s a great opportunity for Nevada with a national audience to pull the upset.

Nevada usually offers value when playing in Reno (19-8 ATS at home since '04) and this is Nevada’s first home game of the season and first of three straight at home. If they get on track and start a winning streak, their final game vs. Boise State could determine the WAC Champion.

Quarterback play:

Blaine Gabbert was named the starter to replace Chase Daniel at Missouri, and he started the season right where Daniel left off. The sophomore has completed over 68% of his passes for 747 yards and 8 touchdowns with no picks. He has also rushed for 95 yards and 2 scores. Again, Missouri hasn’t played any top tier defenses thus far, but those are still impressive numbers thus far.  This road test and the Friday night atmosphere will be a first for the young starter and we'll have a better idea of what he's made of after this weekend.

Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick was last year’s WAC offensive player of the year, throwing for 22 touchdowns and rushing for 17 more. He has got off to a very slow start in the first two games this season, throwing for just one touchdown and four interceptions (zero rushing TD’s). The success of Nevada rides on his shoulders and they need him to get on track.

Where’s the D?

Despite being 3-0 against rather weak opponents, Missouri has allowed 348 yards per game (242 passing/ 106 rushing). They’ve been opportunistic though, getting key stops and only allowing 13.7 points per game.

Nevada’s sieve-like ‘D’ has allowed 440 yards per game (261 passing/ 179 rushing) and 35 points per game in their first two games. They have played higher quality opponents than Missouri and both games have been on the road.

Trends:

Missouri is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 as a road favorite. They are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games, and also 7-0-1 ATS their last 8 vs. Current WAC teams.

Nevada is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games and 4-1 ATS in their past 5 Friday night games. But they are just 0-4 SU & ATS vs. the Big 12, including losses to Missouri and Texas Tech last year. They have been outscored 52-15 on average in their last three match ups vs. Big 12 opponents.

Line Movement

The line opened with Missouri -7.5 and the total at 59. The line rose to -8 before falling to a current -7 for Missouri. The total quickly rose to from 59 to 60 and is now set at 61 points.

Weather

Almost perfect playing conditions in Reno for this Friday night game. The forecast is clear and warm for Friday afternoon, with lows in the upper 50’s/ lower 60’s for later Friday night. No rain or foul weather is expected.