National League Spoilers by Nelly's Sportsline
08/07/2009
These teams have been huge disappointments this season but are playing well right now and could serve a tough opponents and even spoilers down the stretch. The overall records will still dictate these underachieving squads being underdogs in many situations and backing these clubs could be beneficial in the coming weeks. Teams that have gutted payroll and traded big stars often receive a short-term boost with the influx of new players but the teams focused on here have the staying power to put together a strong finish until the end even if a long shot playoff berth is probably impossible.
Arizona Diamondbacks:
The Diamondbacks faded late last season but still finished above .500 and just two games out of the NL West lead. Arizona was a trendy pick to be a serious player in the NL but a very rough first six weeks of the season ensued and a coaching change was made. It has taken some time for Arizona to get back on track but since the 4th of July the Diamondbacks are 19-10. Arizona made a few minor moves at the trade deadline but most of the team is still in tact. With over ten games keeping Arizona from the Wild Card lead it would take a miraculous finish to get back in the picture, but expect the Diamondbacks to be a profitable club down the stretch.
Starting pitching has not been a problem for Arizona as their 65 quality starts is the third best mark in baseball. A big reason for the disappointment has been that Arizona possesses one of the best rotations in baseball with Dan Haren having a Cy Young caliber season while Max Scherzer has also emerged as promising young starters. Veterans Jon Garland and Doug Davis do not have great records but both have pitched extremely well overall. The injury to Brandon Webb has been discouraging and leaves Arizona with a serious dilemma on whether to pick up his option, but the main pitching problems for Arizona have been in the bullpen. Arizona owns a 4.56 bullpen ERA for the season but over the last ten games that figure is down to 1.76 and improved relief pitching will make Arizona a very tough team to beat on any night.
Arizona’s offense has also delivered increased production in recent weeks even with the injury to Justin Upton crippling the lineup earlier this week. Arizona will be playing several playoff contenders down the stretch with ten games remaining against the Dodgers where they could find excellent underdog value as well as facing San Francisco eight times and Colorado six times. The Diamondbacks will play a critical role in the Wild Card race even if this year they will not likely be a part of the picture. Look for Arizona to continue inching closer to .500 at actually have a legitimate shot at getting close to last year’s overall record even if they will still be distant in the playoff race.
Washington Nationals:
The Nationals have the record of a team that likely dumped salaries and traded starters for next year but that has not been the case. This is a team that has most of the lineup from early in the season still in place but Washington has been unable to get consistent pitching performances at any point in the season. Washington has however won nine of the last 13 games and the offense ranks as one of the more productive units in the National League. The current rotation also appears to offer enough promise to expect the Nationals to be more competitive down the stretch.
Washington ranks dead last in almost every pitching category as well as committing the most errors in baseball but there are some positive signs for the final two months. John Lannan continues to deliver productive starts for Washington and he has developed into a true ace for the team, amazingly with an 8-8 record on a team that is 37-72. Finally giving up on veterans Daniel Cabrera and Scott Olsen, young pitchers like J.D. Martin, Colin Balester, and Craig Stammen have pitched well enough to remain in the rotation. The bullpen has also seen improvement as Mike MacDougal has shored up the closing role and Sean Burnett has been a fine set-up man since joining the team. With Jordan Zimmermann likely to return Washington’s pitching could actually be respectable down the stretch.
Washington will continue to be a big underdog in many situations and this is likely still going to be a losing team in the final two months. Washington has won less than 34 percent of its games at this point in the season however and improving on that rate is very likely. 13 of the next 16 games are against teams with losing records and Washington actually owns the 10th best team batting average in baseball at .266. For the year the Nats are scoring over 4.5 runs per game and the team has scored more runs than ten other NL teams. Nyjer Morgan is the one player the Pirates probably shouldn’t have traded as he has been the catalyst for the recent surge of production, batting .365 since joining the team. Washington will still be an easy team to overlook and a risky team to back but the offense has been impressive lately and the pitching is not as bad as most assume.
New York Mets:
It is difficult call on the Mets as a potential spoiler team being that they were favored by many to win the NL and feature a huge payroll but this is a team that is too talented to be below .500. Injuries have devastated the Mets this season and the outlook with a few key players such as Jose Reyes is not promising, but Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran are both expected back in a few weeks. Even with the injuries, the Mets offense has been capable, batting .269 for the second best mark in the NL this season. The power numbers have been poor however, with just 67 home runs, the fewest in baseball. Getting a few of the veteran sluggers back would make a big difference by simply providing a feared bat in the middle of the order.
The Mets pitching has not been that bad either but they have had holes in the rotation and untimely bullpen struggles even though the overall numbers are strong. The Mets own a very strong 3.60 bullpen ERA but have somehow had 20 games lost by relievers, the third most in baseball. Johan Santana has still had a fine year and he has always been a great late season pitcher so he could help the Mets get back to .500 with a strong finish. Mike Pelfrey has also delivered decent results and John Maine is slated to return from injury soon. Livan Hernandez has been a surprisingly effective pitcher and solid reliever Bobby Parnell could translate as a decent starter as well. Oliver Perez has even made a few decent outings in recent weeks so the Mets pitching could be through the worst part of the season and finish respectably.
The schedule may also help the Mets get a little bit of late season momentum. New York is 8-6 in the last 14 games as they just wrapped up a long home stand. The Mets are out west right now to face lowly San Diego and an Arizona team that has also struggled this year so there will be opportunities for wins before returning for another long home stand in late August. The Mets only leave the east coast for three games in September and they will mainly play division games in the final month, to hopefully end a season on a better note than the past two years.