Friday Game of the Day: Boise State at Fresno State (-7, 53.5)
BCS Busters
Boise State kicked off the season with a big win against Oregon to put them on the map as a legitimate BCS contender. Friday’s game @Fresno could be the toughest test left of their remaining games.
Other than [potentially] tough games vs. Nevada and @Tulsa, Boise’s schedule looks like it could be smooth sailing all the way to an undefeated season. It could be tough for the Broncos to move up in the rankings from here on, so winning by large margins will be important for Boise the rest of the season.
Boise Domination
In 2001 Fresno was ranked No. 8 and looking at a 13-0 season before losing to Boise State which ended up costing the Bulldogs a BCS Bowl. Since the start of the 2001 season Boise has gone 88-15 SU, 58-37-3 ATS, only losing three WAC games in that period (one coming against Fresno State in ‘05).
The Broncos have won 7 of 8 vs. the Bulldogs by 24 ppg. Last year, these two were tied at 10 late in the 2nd quarter before Boise scored 51 unanswered points. The last three years Boise has won by an average score of 46-17 and out-gained the Bulldogs by an average of 471 yards to 289.
Key for Fresno
The run defense will be the key for the Bulldogs if they want to pull the upset against Boise. In BSU’s last and only loss since 2007, the Horned Frogs of TCU ran for 275 yards and held the Broncos to 28 in the Poinsetta Bowl. TCU beat Boise State 17-16.
Boise has averaged 276 rushing yards per game in the last three games vs. Fresno but their run game has yet to take off this year, averaging just 145.5 yards per game and 3.3 per carry.
Defensive showdown
Boise is usually recognized for their offense but their defense has been equally as impressive of late. The defense has allowed just 8 points and 346 total yards in two games thus far. They have held four of their last 12 opponents without an offensive TD.
Last week they shutout Miami OH and allowed just 194 total yards. They held the Redhawks of Miami without a single play of more than 13 yards. That game marked the 14th time in their last 28 games that the Broncos have held their opponent to 10 or fewer points.
Fresno won their first game 51-0 vs. UC Davis (FBS) and held the Wisconsin Badgers to 17 points up until 5:45 left in the 4th quarter but then allowed 17 points in remainder of the 4th quarter and overtime. The Bulldog defense gave up just 21.1 ppg in 2004 but has been in steady decline since as they gave up 31.1 ppg in 2008.
Keep on eye on…
Wisconsin had a swine flu outbreak last week leading up to the game vs. Fresno State. Forty-five players for Wisconsin (almost half the team) missed practice during the week leading up to the contest versus FSU. There has been no mention of Fresno players catching it yet but it's something to keep an eye on.
Trends
Boise is 7-1 both SU and ATS the last 8 in this series. Fresno has not been a home dog of more than a TD since 2003. When tabbed as a home dog of a TD or more, the Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS since 1990 winning 3 of those games outright. However, FSU is just 1-6 both SU and ATS the last 7 overall when getting points at home. Since 1999, the Broncos have been a road favorite of a TD or more 34 times. They are 18-15-1 ATS in those games, however they have lost only one of those contests straight up and that was back in 1999 @North Texas.
Line Movement
The line opened with Boise at -7.5 and has stayed in the range of -7 and -8 (currently at -7). The total opened 53.5 and rose to 54.5 before dropping again to a current 53.5.
Weather
The weather won’t be a factor in this game. The forecast is calling for hot temperatures, mid 80’s by game-time falling into the mid-to-low 70’s. There is 0% chance for precipitation and 5-10 mph winds.