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November 30, 2007

by Scott Rickenback, Players Advantage

Injuries can play a huge role in NFL line analysis when it comes to where the value is. This weekend we see a couple of key games with playoff positioning involved that certainly could be impacted by the injury bug. This is particularly a key because the injuries are at the all-important quarterback position.

New Orleans (-3) vs Tampa Bay
The inconsistent Saints have been handed a gift this week as they have the opportunity to pick up a game in the standings when the first place Buccaneers come to the Superdome with the quarterback situation very up in the air. Jeff Garcia is nursing a sore back and is unlikely to play. This is leaving the Bucs to go with either Bruce Gradkowski or Luke McCown. Garcia is not in the Manning or Brady class but he has done exactly what Jon Gruden has asked this year. Garcia has done a good job with game management and this has led the Buccaneers to their surprising 7-4 record. Tampa Bay might also be without running back Michael Pittman which will add even more pressure to the play of the quarterback position. Tampa won the first meeting this year 31-17. Garcia was 10 for 16 with two touchdowns and no interceptions. We see this one being a different story as whoever is leading the Tampa offense is going to have to throw more than 16 times and they will be playing from behind early. We also see the -3 being too low in this one as this will be the Saints last chance to make a playoff push. We are not saying this is a definite play for us just yet but we’re definitely taking a long look!

San Diego (-5) at Kansas City
The AFC West is still very much up for grabs and the (6-5) Chargers will have the Arrowhead Stadium home field advantage quite neutralized in this one! That’s because the Chiefs will be starting a quarterback that will not be 100%. Both Brodie Croyle (back) and Damon Huard (neck) are going to be limited from a mobility standpoint and that should make the Chargers pass-rush even more dangerous than it already is. Complicating matters for the Chiefs is that they – like the already mentioned Buccaneers - will be using their third-string running back making Croyle or Huard’s job even tougher. The Chiefs offense has been terrible all year and that was even with a healthy Larry Johnson. As a result of the injuries, we foresee the Chargers turning in a dominating defensive performance in this one. San Diego may very well cover the five points on the road with ease as their offense might not have to do much to cover against the punch less Chiefs offense. This is another game that gets a long look from us!

Seattle (+3) at Philadelphia
In what might be one of the best games this weekend, the recently high flying Seahawks will bring their air-show to Philly against an Eagles team that is flying high as well after their moral victory from last weeks game against the Patriots. The Eagles will probably be without Donovan McNabb who is making his usual end of the season appearance on the
injury list. The Eagles have been a tough call this year but the play of Feely last week certainly allows the rest of the team to know that they are not dead in the water without McNabb. The Seahawks have placed the fortunes of their season on the right arm of Matt Hasselbeck and he has led them to three straight wins. We think there is a very good chance the Eagles are getting over-valued here after their performance against New England since no one had been able to stay as close to the Pats as they did. Keep in mind though that no matter how good New England is – they were not going to continue to dominate everyone and that was probably a let down game for them knowing McNabb was hurt. Also helping Seattle here is that the Seahawks defense has played very well of late and we see that trend continuing in this one as they just might pull the upset on the road. Another one we will keep an eye on as Sunday approaches!

Good Luck this weekend.

Check out everything Players Advantage has going for this weekend right here.