FIRST THOUGHTS – in MID MAY!

Thursday, Sept. 9^th

New Orleans (-4.5, 51.5) vs. Minnesota (@ New Orleans)

This line was New Orleans -3.5 for the NFC Championship game with the Saints winning by 3 in OT. If you think Favre will be under center, the value is probably with the Vikes as of right now. Remember, Minnesota basically gave that game away with 5 turnovers. They out yarded the Saints by 218 and threw away a chance to win late in regulation with a Favre int. If Favre doesn’t come back, you want to be on the Saints at this number because it won’t be there for long if he announces his retirement. It could go up to -6 or higher if Favre doesn’t return.

NY Giants (-7, 41) vs. Carolina (@ New York)

QB Jake Delhomme is gone. Matt Moore steps into a full time role. The Panthers also saved rookie Jimmy Clausen from his draft day free fall grabbing him in the 2^nd round. The D-Line was a question mark last year and now Julius Peppers is in Chicago. The Panthers were 6-1 ATS their last 7 games as a dog a year ago. Better yet, If this line stays at -7 or higher, Carolina has covered 65% of their games as a dog of a TD or more (35-19-1) since 1995. The Giants were penciled into the Super Bowl after starting last year 5-0. Finishing just 8-8 was a huge disappointment. The NYG defense was poor allowing just under 27 PPG (30^th in the NFL). As of now, I’d be reluctant to lay a full TD here.

Buffalo (+1.5, 38) vs. Miami (@ Buffalo)

Tough to lay points here with the Dolphins if you are into history. As bad as the Bills have been as of late, they have beaten Miami 5 straight times both SU & ATS in Buffalo. Going back 12 years, the Bills are 9-3 both SU and ATS when hosting the Fins. Last year Miami was a 3.5 point favorite here and the Bills cruised by a score of 31-14. The Dolphins hope their “middle of the pack” offense gets a boost with the addition of WR Brandon Marshall via a trade with Denver. Might not happen here vs. a Buffalo defense that was 2^nd in the NFL against the pass allowing just 184 YPG. New Buffalo coach Chan Gailey has opened up the QB battle with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Trent Edwards and even Brian Brohm battling to start. 

Pittsburgh (-1, 40) vs. Atlanta (@ Pittsburgh)

Pitt QB Ben Roethlisberger will be watching with clipboard in hand here due to a six game suspension. His replacement looks like it will be Byron Leftwich and he will be without two weapons on the outside as Santonio Holmes was traded to the Jets and Limas Sweed is out for the year. These two teams have met just 8 times in the last 30 seasons. Steelers are 6-1-1 SU in those meetings. Since Matt Ryan took over as the starting QB at the beginning of the 2008 season, the Birds have covered over 63% (19-11 ATS) in games he’s started. This one looks like a tough call. Pitt’s offense might struggle without Big Ben and WR weapons but tough to go against them at home with this low line. On a side note, the Black & Gold have an OVER record of 28-12-3 at home dating back to 2005.     

Chicago (-7, 42.5) vs. Detroit (@ Chicago)

The Bears are hoping QB Jay Cutler stops turning the ball over and gives his offense a chance. His 26 interceptions were the most in the NFL by far with two rookies, Mark Sanchez and Matthew Stafford, each throwing 20 to come in second on this dubious list. I thought this line might be higher. Chicago was favored by 9.5 last year in Soldier Field and rolled to a 24-point win. The Bears have won 8 of the last 10 in this NFC North blood bath. Many are expecting Detroit to be improved as QB Stafford has a year under his belt and they picked up some talent in the draft (Ndamukong Suh included). However, their road woes are simply unmatched. This team has not won a road game since 2007. That’s 20 consecutive road setbacks by an average score of 33-15. Going back even further, to October of 2004, the Kitties are only 5-40 SU on the road (18-25-2 ATS). Ouch!

New England (-5.5, 44) vs. Cincinnati (@ New England)

Is there trouble in New England? After getting trounced by Baltimore in last year’s playoffs, Pat QB Tom Brady recently called out some of his teammates questioning the team’s leadership and mental toughness. Randy Moss, as usual, was in the middle of the controversy and seemed to be disinterested at times last year. We’ll see. Cincinnati is not immune to internal problems and they continue to add players with “checkered” pasts to their roster. They already lead the league in the “most arrests” with 31 since 2000. That’s why their recent signings of Pacman Jones & Matt Jones have to be questioned. Before their embarrassing home loss in the playoffs to Baltimore, the Pats were 8-0 SU at Gillette Stadium winning all but one by more than this -5.5 number. However, Cincy has covered over 81% of the time as an underdog dating back to late in the 2008 season (9-2 ATS). Even more impressive, the Bengals have won 8 of those 11 games out right! Tough call here.

Tampa Bay (-1.5, 37) vs. Cleveland (@ Tampa)

Who the heck is going to score points in this stinker? Two of the worst scoring offenses in the NFL from a year ago (both averaged 15 PPG) have at it in Tampa in a not made for prime time game. The QB for the Bucs will be Josh Johnson who has started a total of four games in his career with a pass completion rate of barely 50%. For the Browns, they have a choice of cast offs Jake Delhomme or Seneca Wallace, that is unless rookie Colt McCoy somehow wows the coaches and gets the nod. The Bucs are actually favored? Last time that happened was in 2008 as last year they were a dog in all 16 games. Tampa closed out the 2009 season with 7 straight UNDERS. Cleveland scored a total of 21 offensive TD’s in 16 games a year ago. While the side might be a bit touchy in this one, maybe a lean to the under if it doesn’t get too low (it’s at 37 right now).

Jacksonville (-1.5, 41.5) vs. Denver (@ Jax)

The Broncs and new head coach Josh McDaniel took the NFL by storm last year winning their first 6 games. Not bad from a team that wasn’t supposed to do much last year according to the experts. Well it turned out the experts were right at Denver proceed to lose 8 of their final 10 games and finish at .500. In those final 8 losses, they were beaten by double digits in all but two. The Jags finished at 7-9 last year, but they were 5-3 SU at home. Their only home losses came to playoff teams Arizona and Indianapolis along with Miami who missed the post season. Two of their three home losses came right down to the wire (Indy & Miami) losing both by just 4 points. Jag QB David Garrard has “rededicated” himself this year and RB Maurice Jones-Drew is among the best in the NFL. Dating back to 2001, the Broncos have won only one game SU in which they were a slight dog of +1 to +2.5 (1-7 SU). As of now, I’d lean ever so slightly to the host at this low number.