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ASA's Super Bowl prediction
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ASA's Super Bowl Prediction - 2011-12


Pittsburgh Steelers +1215

 

Keep in mind, as we write this, the NFL lockout is still in place. Thus, there are a lot of unknowns when it comes to how teams will actually look in 2011 (free agency, etc..). With that being said, we like the situation Pittsburgh is currently in. Obviously the Steelers were in the Super Bowl last year and came away empty handed after losing to Green Bay. We think they have a great chance to get back this year and come away with the Lombardi Trophy. First of all we have to look and say, "Will this team have a very good chance of first making the Playoffs?" The answer for Pittsburgh is yes. They are in a fairly weak AFC North where their only competition to win this division looks like it will be Baltimore. Pitt won the division last year and that was with QB Ben Roethlisberger sitting out the first four games. While the Ravens are solid, they have all kinds of trouble with the Steelers. Raven QB Joe Flacco is just 2-6 lifetime against Pitt. Those two wins came when Roethlisberger didn't play. Thus, he is really 0-6 versus the Steelers in our book. The Men of Steel were +143 in point differential last year which was topped only by Green Bay and New England. They rolled Baltimore by 56 points in that category. They have won the AFC North 5 of the last 9 seasons and that shouldn't change in 2011. As we look at the schedule, the Steelers have an easy one in our opinion. Their road games are @ Baltimore, @ Indy, @ Houston, @ Arizona, @ Cincinnati, @ KC, @ San Fran, and @ Cleveland. Only three of those eight had winning seasons last year (Balt, KC, & Indy) and the combined record of their road opponents was 58-70. Their "crossover" slate is with the ultra weak NFC West (Arizona, Seattle, San Fran, & St. Louis). Overall, Pittsburgh's strength of schedule is ranked 27th in the NFL. Their opponents this year had a combined record of 121-135 (47%) last year. After Roethlisberger returned to the lineup last year, this team averaged 24.6 PPG which would have ranked 7th in the NFL. Their defense led the NFL allowing only 14.5 PPG and we would expect another dominating stop unit this year. Especially since 10 of their 16 games this year will be against teams that finished 22nd or worse in scoring offense last year. This team knows how to get it done in the post-season. Roethlisberger has played in three super bowls already in his seven year career, winning two of them. They have the offense and defense in place to get there again. A fairly weak division and an easy slate ushers us to grab Pittsburgh at +1215 to win the SUPER BOWL.
 
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