ASA handicaps the NFL Conference Winners in 2011-2012
Point Train’s 2011-12 NFL Conference Champions
We had to wait until a new CBA was reached before we could release our 2011 Conference Champion selections due to free agent acquisitions and total roster turnover for each team. We felt strongly about two teams as “longshots” throughout the summer and both seemed to help themselves during the initial free agent frenzy that followed the signing of the new CBA.
AFC CHAMPION
San Diego Chargers (+625)
San Diego’s 2010 campaign was quite peculiar. The Chargers finished 1st in both total offense and defense yet failed to make the playoffs. They dug themselves a hole with just a 2-5 mark through seven weeks (lost those five games by an average of just 5.6 points per game). They finished strong with a 7-2 record but still missed the playoffs at 9-7. It was the first time in four years that San Diego failed to reach the playoffs. With a strong returning cast and some key acquisitions, the Chargers are a great bet AT +625 to conquer the AFC West and reach the title game.
In 2010, San Diego’s No. 1 WR Vincent Jackson played in only four games; All-Pro TE Antonio Gates missed six contests with a foot ailment; LT Marcus McNeill held out for five games; starting RB Ryan Mathews started just nine games due to a foot injury; No. 2 WR Malcom Floyd missed five games. All things considered, it’s amazing that QB Philip Rivers was still able to throw for 4,710 yards, 30 touchdowns and just 13 interceptions. He also maintained a completion percentage of 66.0 and an YPA of 8.7. There’s no reason to believe that Rivers’ productivity will decline this season now that all those players are reported to camp and are 100% healthy.
Defensively, the Chargers posted some pretty impressive numbers last season. They ranked 5th versus the run (3.7 YPC), 3rd against the pass (6.5 YPA), and tied for 3rd in terms of sacks (47). It will be difficult for the Chargers to duplicate those numbers considering they lost defensive coordinator Ron Rivera – now head coach of the Carolina Panthers – but they still should boast a top-5 defense this season.
San Diego is notorious for slow-starts to the season under HC Norv Turner. This year should be different as three of the first four games are at home against Minnesota, Kansas City, and Miami. They also conclude their season with five-of-six games against playoff non-contenders from a year ago (DEN, JAC, BUF, DET, OAK). San Diego is worth strong consideration to reach the Super Bowl at +625.
NFC CHAMPION
New Orleans Saints (+725)
New Orleans suffered through a bit of a “Super Bowl hangover” in 2010. Every week was a dog-fight as every opponent gave the Saints its best shot because they were the champions and everyone wanted to de-throne the SB champs. They were able to notch 11 wins, but five of their wins were by five points or less and they were ousted in their Wild Card meeting with the Seahawks. New Orleans will again be the “hunter” instead of the “hunted” and with the amount of talent on this roster – is a great bet to conquer the NFC and play in the Super Bowl for the second time in three years.
This offseason there was a major overhaul in areas where the Saints struggled last season. New Orleans’ running game was mostly ineffective and finished 28th in the NFL in rushing yards. The cut Reggie Bush this off-season and re-signed Pierre Thomas, brought in Darren Sproles from San Diego, and drafted Mark Ingram in the first round of the NFL draft. Defensively the Saints struggled to create pressure on the opposing QB, which led to a decrease in created turnovers. They drafted DE Cameron Jordan in the first round pick and acquired DE Turk McBride in free agency. New Orleans also beefed up at defensive tackle, signing veterans Aubrayo Franklin and Shaun Rogers.
Drew Brees had 4,620 passing yards and 33 touchdowns, but struggled mightily with turnovers (career high 22 INT). Brees’ mistakes should decrease here in 2001 with the entire receiving corps back (Colston, Moore, Henderson, Meachem, Roby) along with breakout candidate TE Jimmy Graham. Also, a re-vamped running game should spark openings in the passing game. This offense will be explosive again in 2011.
New Orleans has an especially favorable schedule late in the season. The Saints bye week comes in week 11, after a tough road game in Atlanta. They then have four of their final six games at home – and five of the six opponents didn’t make the playoffs last season. This team will be hungry to return to prominence and we expect another big run from Who Dat nation.
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