ASA’s says the 2011 ACC CHAMPS will be…
Virginia Tech +250
The Hokies took the ACC Coastal Division Title last year with a perfect 8-0 record. They then went on to beat FSU 44-33 in the ACC Title Game. With that win, Tech has now won the ACC Championship, or at least shared the title, in five of the last seven seasons. This team has dominated the conference since joining the ACC back in 2004. In fact, they have lost only 10 conference games since leaving the Big East in '04. That's amazing. They will have to replace one of the more dynamic players in college football with the loss of QB Tyrod Taylor. However, we have heard very good things about his replacement, Logan Thomas, and he has a solid offensive line to work with (4 of 5 starters back).
The defense slipped last year from their usual domination. After six straight seasons of allowing 297 total YPG or less, the 2010 version gave up 362 YPG. They allowed opponents to gain 5.5 yards per play (57th nationally) after allowing only 4.4 YPP a year earlier. While they only officially bring back five starters, they have plenty of experience with 11 players totaling at least 20 tackles last year. We truly expect defensive coordinator Bud Adams to have his stop unit back to their usual selves this season. Last year was a defensive aberration and definitely not the norm in Blacksburg. With Frank Beamer at the helm, we know that VT will have a special teams advantage over nearly everyone they play. This team is always a threat to block punts & kicks. They are also adept at returning the aforementioned for TD's.
Finally, the all important schedule is definitely in the Hokies advantage this year. They play the two toughest teams in the Coastal Division (UNC & Miami) at home this year where VT is 41-7 SU since 2003. They miss out on playing Florida State and Clemson, arguably the two best teams in the Atlantic Division. Their ACC road games are against Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia, and Georgia Tech who COMBINED to win just seven conference games last year. Beamer shows again that despite being underappreciated by most, his teams are the most consistent in the ACC. The Hokies should be favored in every regular season game they play and they will sit on top of the ACC at the end of this season.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASA says the 2011 BIG 12 CHAMPS will be…
Texas Longhorns +500
After Nebraska fled for the Big Ten and Colorado for the Pac-10 (now the Pac-12), the Big 12 is down to just 10 teams and will no longer feature two divisions. Oklahoma rebounded after a disappointing 2009-10 season (finished 8-5 despite loads of talent) to win the Big 12 last season, earning a spot in a BCS Bowl. We expect the Longhorns to take a similar path this season. The Longhorns lost to Alabama in the 2010 National Championship and followed that up with a 5-7 finish in 2010-11 – missing out on a bowl bid for the first time since 1997. The Longhorns made some key personnel changes and are a great bet to have a bounce-back 2011-12 campaign.
The Longhorns are heading into the season with two new coordinators. Longtime offensive coordinator Greg Davis is being replaced by co-coordinators Major Applewhite (assistant head coach last three years) and Bryan Harsin (offensive coordinator for Boise State the previous five seasons). Former Mississippi State defensive coordinator Manny Diaz will be taking over the same position previously occupied by Will Muschamp – now head coach at Florida. Despite playing a grueling schedule, Diaz’s Bulldogs ranked 42nd in total defense, 15th in run defense, and 21st in scoring defense. He’ll have a lot more talent in the cupboard to work with at Texas and this defense won’t miss a beat.
Texas has arguably the best returning defense in the Big 12. The Longhorns ranked 13th in the Nation in total defense and 6th in passing defense. They did allow 23.7 points per game (most since 2007) mostly due to -12 turnover ratio – repeatedly granting opponents favorable field position for easy points.
Junior quarterback Garrett Gilbert struggled in his first season as a starter. He completed just 59 percent of his passes with 10 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. He didn’t have a strong running game to depend on and defenses could focus on the passing attack. He’ll benefit from the experience and a new offensive system will help a lot. Also, the top two running backs return and the top RB recruit also joins the mix so much of the weight will be off his shoulders. Gilbert and this offense will rebound from a sub-par 2010 and the Longhorns are a great bet to conquer the new-look Big 12 in 2011.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASA says the 2011 PAC 12 CHAMPS will be…
Arizona State Sun Devils +650
There was some changing of the guard in the Pacific conference last season. USC dominated most of the last decade, losing just 13 total games from 2002-09. The Trojans got slammed with NCAA violations before the 2010 season and that seemed to unravel the dynasty as they finished with an 8-5 record. Oregon had a favorable 2010 schedule and finished the regular season undefeated, winning the conference over the one-loss Stanford Cardinal. The Pac-12 (added Colorado and Utah) looks to be more wide-open than ever heading into 2011. Arizona State returns a ton of talent from an up & down season and we like the Sun Devils as a longshot to win the new-look Pac-12.
ASU returns most of its starters from a year ago as only 17 lettermen graduated. Junior quarterback Brock Osweiler started the final two games of 2010 and led ASU to two wins with 647 passing yards and six touchdowns (one rushing). He’ll be operating behind an offensive line that returns all five starters and ahead of 2010’s top two running backs. Defensively, the Sun Devils gave up too many big plays a season ago. Five teams scored 30+ points and five gained over 400 yards. Six of their top seven defenders return to form a much improved unit.
ASU finished 6-6 last year, but the Sun Devils were far better than their record indicates. They nearly beat Wisconsin on the road (lost by one-point), had Oregon on the ropes, lost at USC by one-point, and lost to Stanford by four points. Arizona State gets to face Arizona, Cal, Oregon State, and USC at home and doesn’t face Stanford. The biggy is a visit to Eugene to face Oregon on October 15th, but the rest of the schedule is manageable. Head coach Dennis Erickson really likes this team and thinks considers this to be one of his best at ASU. The Sun Devils have, what looks to be, a clear path to the Pac-12 title game with USC out of the equation – and with that they look like a strong longshot bet to win the Pac-12.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASA says the 2011 SEC CHAMPS will be...
Georgia Bulldogs +500
Despite finishing with its first losing season since 1996, Georgia was better than its record indicated last year. They had tough road losses to South Carolina, Mississippi State, Colorado, Florida, and Auburn; and four of the seven losses were by single digits. They were statistically strong, averaging +10 points per game and +55 yards per game despite more losses than wins. Georgia is a storied program that is historically strong and we expect them to get back to their winning ways this fall.
The offense loses star-receiver AJ Green to the NFL, but returns a boatload of talent otherwise. They’ll be strong at the QB position as Aaron Murray is back for his sophomore campaign. Murray threw for 3,049 yards (61.1%) with 24 touchdowns and just 8 interceptions as a freshman! Head coach Mark Richt is really excited about Aaron Murray in 2nd year as starter. In the backfield, highly recruited Isaiah Crowell is drawing raves and is being compared to 2010 National freshman of the year from SEC rival South Carolina – Marcus Lattimore. Lattimore ran for 1,197 yards and 17 touchdowns as a true freshman and Crowell is said to have a similar skill set. All signs point to him winning the starting RB position and having a big year for the Bulldogs.
Defensively this unit will be stout. Ten players return that recorded at least 24 tackles, including the entire starting secondary that allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete just 54.9 percent in 2010. This unit also forced a ton of turnovers, helping the Bulldogs finish +10 in turnover ratio (UGA’s best mark since 2005).
The SEC East is up for grabs this season. Florida is undergoing a complete overhaul of the coaching staff, South Carolina has major quarterback concerns, Tennessee continues to rebuild, and Kentucky and Vanderbilt are both off of losing season. The schedule sets up quite nicely for the Bulldogs – might say its “easy” compared to SEC standards. UGA only has three true conference road games against Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt (combined for only five conference wins last year). And they don’t meet Alabama, LSU, or Arkansas. The door is wide open for the talented Bulldogs to walk away with the SEC Crown in 2011.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASA says the 2011 BIG EAST CHAMPS will be…
Cincinnati Bearcats +500
The Bearcats struggled last year in Butch Jones first year as head coach. The Cincy players were shocked and disappointed when Brian Kelly bolted for Notre Dame. Despite having some solid talent, they never really recovered from that jolt and finished the season 4-8 SU. Despite their struggles last year, this team is used to winning and contending for the Big East Titles. They won the Big East in both 2008 and 2009 and their SU record of 33-7 from 2007-2009 was the best in the conference. With the Kelly debacle behind them and a full year under Jones, expect the Cats to get back into contention this year.
The offense was very solid last year as they led the league averaging 418 YPG. WVU was a distant second putting up 373 YPG. Expect more of the same in 2011. QB Zach Collaros returns after leading the conference in total offense and passing for more yards than anyone else in the league. UC also brings back the top returning WR in the league with DJ Woods (898 yards receiving last year). They also have the top returning rusher as Isaiah Pead comes back after putting up over 1,000 yards on the ground and 6.6 YPC. The O-Line might look like a rebuilding job, however three seniors will be starting and of the three "new" starters, two have significant experience. Jones' offense at Central Michigan was always quite potent and we look for that to continue now that he has a year under his belt here.
The defense wasn't great last year, however they bring back 10 starters and we expect a huge improvement. Ten of their eleven starters on defense will most likely be upperclassmen. They do play both USF and Pitt on the road which is not a plus, however they have a bye in between those two games which will benefit them. They need to get back to their winning ways away from home (16-3 SU from 2007-09) after winning just once on the road last year. We think they will. This team was not as bad as their 4-8 record last year. They were only outscored by 11 total points on the season. With a very veteran team, 50 lettermen returning which is tops in the Big East, we look for them to get back to their winning ways in 2011. At +500 to win the weak Big East, the Bearcats are worth a strong look.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASA says the 2011 BIG TEN CHAMPS will be…
Illinois Fighting Illini +2000
As you can see, we like quite a "longshot" when it comes to this year's Big Ten race. While many are talking about Nebraska, Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan State, and even Ohio State, we advise you not to overlook this Illinois team. All of the teams listed above are obviously very solid, however none of them come close to providing the potential value this Illini team can. At their current 20 to 1 odds, we think you should take a long look at this team to win the Big Ten.
The Illini finished 4-4 in the Big 10 last season and 7-6 overall. They have the talent to push toward the top this year. They return 42 lettermen including QB Nate Scheelhaase, who threw for almost 2,000 yards and ran for almost 1,000 more. He'll operate behind a mostly veteran offensive line. While they lost workhorse RB Mikel Leshoure to the NFL, senior Jason Ford finally gets his shot as the main man after rushing for 1,362 career yards and 5 YPC thus far. The offense should even be better this year (32 PPG LY) with a full year under OC Paul Petrino. The defense had their ups and downs last season but bring back nine players who totaled more than 20 tackles.
The thing we REALLY like about the Illini this year is their schedule. The talent is there to finish in the upper half again, however the schedule gives them a chance to push toward the very top of the league. Their Big Ten road games this season are @ Indiana, @ Purdue, @ Penn State, and @ Minnesota. Minus PSU, their other three road opponents all finished at the bottom of the Big Ten with a combined conference record of 5-17. On top of that, the Illini should have some confidence traveling to Penn State after beating the Nittany Lions by 20 points last year in Happy Valley. If they can manage those road games and hold serve at home, this team will be right there at the end of the season. They have some nice momentum entering this year after crushing Baylor in the Texas Bowl, 38-14, and at 20 to 1 odds, we need to take a shot here.
For winning football picks this weekend be sure to check out all of ASA's packages right here!